Investors replied optimistically to Milei's electoral support and the weakening of Peronism
Calculated by United States bank JP Morgan, country risk was above 2,000 points at the beginning of 2024, when Milei began his administration amid the inflationary and fiscal legacy of Kirchnerism. With the implementation of political spending cuts, the elimination of the primary deficit, and the recovery of the financial surplus, the indicator steadily declined, reaching below 600 points in January 2025.
After the resounding victory of La Libertad Avanza in Sunday's legislative elections, the markets replied with an unequivocal signal: country risk plummeted by 39.7%, falling from 1,081 to 652 basis points. This is a historic drop that reflects investors' confidence in Javier Milei's economic leadership and in the continuity of the stability and reform program promoted by his administration.
The collapse of the indicator—which measures the rate difference that Argentine bonds must pay compared to United States Treasury bonds—represents a vote of confidence from the markets in the fiscal and monetary stability promoted by the liberal administration. The 429-point drop in a single day was celebrated by traders and analysts, who agreed in stating that "Argentina is once again credible."
However, the months prior to the election showed some volatility after the partial victories of Peronism in Buenos Aires province, which raised the index to 1,081 points on the Friday before the elections. The resounding libertarian victory on October 26 reversed that trend and consolidated a message of confidence that investors were expecting: continuity of the economic program, fiscal discipline, and deepening of structural reforms.
Markets are rewarding the vote of confidence in President Milei. What fell is not just a number or a line on a chart, but the real risk of returning to the Kirchnerist past. The immediate reaction of investors reveals something deeper than a technical movement: a political and economic validation of the course chosen by Argentines at the polls. In fact, the collapse of country risk confirms that international confidence has once again sided with Argentina.
