The administration led by President Javier Milei is reaping its first major achievements in social matters. According to the nowcasting report on poverty prepared by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, poverty dropped to 31.6% in the January-June 2025 semester, with a confidence interval ranging from 30.1% to 33.1%. This represents a significant decrease compared to the previous semester (October 2024-March 2025), when the rate reached 34.9%, with a ceiling of 36.4%.
The technical report breaks down that 31.6% as a weighted average between a rate of 32.1% for the first quarter of 2025 and a further reduction to 31.2% in the second quarter, reflecting a sustained downward trend. This improvement coincides with the full implementation of the fiscal stabilization, economic deregulation, and monetary discipline program promoted by the national Executive.
Nowcast de pobreza.
The calculation is based on the projection of total family income (ITF) of urban households and its comparison with the Total Basic Basket (CBT). In this regard, the study indicates that the average CBT for Greater Buenos Aires for the reference semester was $352,804 per adult, with a year-on-year increase of 41.8%. However, family incomes showed a much faster recovery, with a projected year-on-year increase of 79.7%, which largely explains the reduction in the number of households below the poverty line.
The publication of these data prompted an immediate reaction from President Milei, who replied on social media to criticism from left-wing sectors that continue to label the adjustment as "cruel." "LIBERAL CRUELTY Socialists keep prostituting the meaning of words. The drop in poverty is overwhelming. However, the leftist mandrill talks about cruelty toward the vulnerable. THIEVES who cry because they're being denied the cash register. There are complicit journalists. CIAO!", wrote the president on his X account.
Milagro económico argentino.
The Poverty Nowcast is not a minor figure. While it doesn't replace the official INDEC reports, it has become a recognized technical reference for its early accuracy. The fact that its author, González Rozada, belongs to the academic and not the governmental sphere gives it additional value as empirical evidence of the change in direction.
