The evolution of the square meter in the City of Buenos Aires: why do we believe it is still cheap?

The value of the square meter in the City of Buenos Aires has historically behaved in a cyclical manner: it has had periods of strong increases and periods of significant corrections.

After the crisis of 2001-2002, one of the most important upward cycles of recent decades began. Between 2002 and January 2018, the value of the square meter in dollars adjusted for inflation rose by approximately 200%.

Then the exact opposite happened. Between January 2018 and October 2023, properties fell by approximately 50% in real terms, that is, measured in dollars and adjusted for U.S. inflation.

From that low point in 2023 until August 2026, the market began to recover and has accumulated an increase of nearly 25%.

The calculation that explains why we are still far from 2018

Percentages can be misleading, so let's look at it with a very simple example:

Let's imagine a property that was worth 100 in 2018. With a 50% drop, in 2023 it was worth 50. If since then it has recovered by 25%, today it is worth 62.5.

How much would it need to rise from 62.5 to return to 100? Approximately 60%.

That is the central point: even after the recovery of recent years, simply returning to the real values of 2018 would imply an appreciation of nearly 60% in dollars.

And we are talking about returning to the previous maximum, not exceeding it.

Why are we optimistic?

The peak of 2018 was reached in an Argentina that had a fiscal deficit, inflation, and devaluation. Today we find some different factors: fiscal surplus, inflation that is slowing down, greater exchange rate stability, and the return of mortgage credit.

Additionally, over the past few years, we have seen a strong recovery of other Argentine assets. Dollar bonds, stocks, and salaries measured in dollars have risen. Real estate, in comparison, remains much more lagging.

Another factor we consider fundamental is: future supply.

The number of new constructions and square meters under construction has been decreasing. If there are fewer new properties entering the market while demand continues to recover, the pressure on prices may increase.

And demand is already showing significant signs: in June 2026, nearly 6,000 deeds were executed in the City of Buenos Aires, a historically high level.

In other words, the market is absorbing the existing stock while the production of new units decreases.

It's not just appreciation

While we wait for a potential recovery in the price of the square meter, a property can also generate income.

Currently, properties can be found with gross yields close to 6.5% annually in dollars, depending on the property, its location, and the rental contract.

That is why our thesis does not solely depend on the price rising tomorrow.

We have a real asset that can generate income while we wait for potential appreciation.

Our vision

Today we see a particularly interesting combination:

• prices still very below the real highs of 2018 + recovery of demand + return of mortgage credit + lower future supply + income in dollars.

If the square meter simply recovered the real values it reached in January 2018, from current levels we would be talking about an appreciation of nearly 60% in dollars.

Of course, no one can guarantee that this will happen or when.

But for these reasons, we believe that the Buenos Aires real estate market still has significant potential and that we are facing a particularly favorable scenario for those investing with a long-term perspective.