The IMF confirms its 5.5% growth projection for Argentina in 2025

Days before the key meeting of the executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the organization reaffirmed its growth estimate of 5.5% for Argentina in 2025, within the framework of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

The publication was released prior to the formal review of the targets of the Argentine program, whose approval would enable the disbursement of USD 2 billion to the Central Bank.

Although the local market anticipates a slowdown in activity at the end of the second quarter, the IMF considers that the economic program "has had a solid start", despite an adverse international context.

Global projections and financial context

Globally, the Fund slightly raised its projections: it expects growth of 3% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, both above its previous forecasts. Among the reasons for this improvement are:

• An acceleration of commercial operations in anticipation of possible new tariffs
• Lower average tariffs in the United States
• A weaker dollar and better global financial conditions

These conditions helped sustain a widespread rebound, although projections remain below the pre-pandemic average (3.7%).

What the IMF said about Argentina

In the technical statement issued days before the board meeting, the IMF staff acknowledged the progress made in the first stage of the Argentine economic plan. Among the key points, it mentioned:

• Disinflation process underway
• Reduction of poverty
• Early reentry into international capital markets
• Exchange rate adjustment toward a floating dollar without shocks, with the exchange rate remaining within the expected band

However, the organization also identified tensions regarding international reserves, which were a point of friction between the local economic team and the Fund's technical staff during recent negotiations. The organization did not provide details on the request for a waiver for possible deviations in reserve accumulation targets.

Risks and warnings from the International Monetary Fund for the global economy

The IMF warned that downside risks persist for the global economy. Among the main factors of instability, it mentioned:

• A possible rebound in tariffs without progress in lasting trade agreements
• Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and put pressure on prices
• High fiscal deficits or increased risk aversion, which could lead to higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions
• Risks of greater global economic fragmentation that would increase market volatility

In this context, the organization reiterated that public policies should aim to generate confidence, predictability, and sustainability, focusing on price stability, the rebuilding of fiscal margins, and the implementation of pending structural reforms.

Regarding inflation, the Fund projected a decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 globally, although it warned that there are significant differences among countries.