The month of June will mark a milestone in the recent history of Argentina's economy. According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank, monthly inflation will stand at 1.9%, thus reaching its lowest level since May 2020. This figure not only confirms the downward path initiated by Javier Milei's government, but also projects a scenario of sustained inflationary stability.
The estimate for May already indicated 2.1%, but what is truly disruptive is the forecast for the coming months: analysts anticipate that inflation will remain below 2% until at least November. The detailed breakdown leaves no room for doubt: 1.8% in June, 1.7% in August, September, and October, and 1.6% in November.
This scenario is significant considering that the country is coming from an accumulated inherited inflation of 117.8% in 2024. For 2025, projections consolidate a drastic decrease with a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 28.6% annually. This figure represents an unprecedented slowdown in a country accustomed to living with chronic inflation.
The decline in inflation is accompanied by a gradual reduction in interest rates. The BCRA estimates that the TAMAR rate—reference for large fixed-term deposits—will be 33.03% in June, will drop to 32.09% in July, and will continue to decrease until reaching 28% in November. This trend aligns with the anti-inflationary logic of the economic team led by Luis Caputo and lays the groundwork for a sustainable credit recovery.
