Lula would lose the election against Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro, according to a new poll.

A recent survey conducted by Instituto Gerp and exclusively released by the Brazilian outlet EXAME on Wednesday, July 2, revealed a concerning scenario for the socialist dictator Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the 2026 presidential elections.

According to the data, if the elections were held today, Lula would be defeated by both the former president and persecuted politician, Jair Bolsonaro, and his wife and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, who are positioned as strong opposition figures.

In a runoff scenario against Jair Bolsonaro, the current PT dictator would receive only 32% of the votes, compared to a resounding 52% for the former head of state, who is currently banned, representing a 20 percentage point difference.

This gap is not only outside the margin of error but also demonstrates a significant increase in support for Bolsonaro, despite his current ineligibility imposed by the Electoral Court, which is controlled by Lula.

Michelle Bolsonaro also emerges as a serious threat to Lula. According to the same survey, the former first lady would defeat the current president by 46% to 34%, a 12-point difference. Although Michelle has not yet officially confirmed her intention to run, her name is gaining ground as a figure capable of uniting the right-wing electorate and capitalizing on her husband's legacy in a potential scenario without Jair Bolsonaro in the race.

In the first round

The survey also analyzed first-round scenarios, where Lula still manages to lead in some cases. However, in direct contests with Jair and Michelle, he again falls behind.

Against Jair Bolsonaro, Lula gathers 26% of the votes compared to 42% for the former president, while against Michelle, the current president falls with 25% compared to 29% for the former first lady, although in this case with a narrower difference. The general trend shows a weakening of Lula's leadership even in the early stages of the electoral process.

The research was conducted between June 23 and 30, 2025, with a sample of 2,000 Brazilian adults and a margin of error of 2.24 percentage points. The confidence level is 95%.

These results consolidate the prominence of the Bolsonaros in the Brazilian political landscape and pose a serious challenge for Lula and the Workers' Party, who will have to reconsider their strategy in the face of an increasingly strong and competitive opposition ahead of 2026.