Polymarket: An account linked to Kicillof intervenes in electoral bets to operate on Javier Milei

The account buys contracts when Kicillof's odds approach 40% and sells when Milei exceeds 50%. According to their signaling, the goal would be to maintain a virtual tie that allows the governor to be positioned as a competitive adversary for 2027.

The significance of the maneuver lies in the fact that Polymarket displays its prices as probabilities, so a large-volume operation can alter public perception of the electoral scenario. However, those percentages do not constitute polls nor necessarily reflect the voting intention of Argentines.

The name of the profile has also raised suspicions due to its coincidence with “Plata o mierda”, a cultural production disseminated in spaces linked to ATE. This nominal relationship does not alone demonstrate who controls the account, but it adds to the information provided by confidential sources about its alleged political financing.

The possible use of funds linked to the Buenos Aires Government to intervene in electoral markets raises new questions about the tools used by Kirchnerism to promote the candidacy of Kicillof, while the province continues to face issues of insecurity, infrastructure, and deterioration of public services.

The operation gained relevance when markets placed Milei's reelection probability around 49% and Kicillof's near 45%, creating an apparent parity that does not arise from traditional polls, but from the money placed by users within the platform, in this case, allegedly from the Buenos Aires government.

A Polymarket account allegedly funded by sectors linked to the Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof has become the center of a scandal for making bets aimed at boosting the electoral chances of the Kirchnerist leader and undermining the odds of President Javier Milei ahead of the 2027 elections.

Confidential sources claimed that the profile would be related to sectors of the provincial administration. The identity of its operator remains hidden behind the pseudonym “Plata-O-Mierda”, although their movements show a strategy focused exclusively on two political outcomes.

The user appears as the largest holder of contracts favoring a potential presidential victory for Kicillof. According to the leaked screenshots, they hold 25,764 shares for “Yes”, far exceeding the other bettors in that market.

At the same time, the account leads the list of those betting against Milei's reelection, with 24,084 shares for “No”. The second position in that segment barely reaches 2,000 shares, reflecting the disproportionate weight of the mysterious operator.

In total, the profile maintains nearly USD 23,700 distributed between both positions: approximately USD 12,283 against the President's victory and another USD 11,465 in favor of the Buenos Aires governor. Despite managing such a volume, the account has recorded only seven predictions since its creation in September 2025.