A possible economic recession in 2025 was forecast for Mexico

Various economic indicators and expert analyses suggest that Mexico could be on the brink of an economic recession in 2025, announced the OECD.

Internal and external factors, such as United States tariff policies and internal fiscal challenges, are contributing to this outlook.

Signs of Economic Slowdown

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) has reported a slowdown in Mexico's economic growth.

Annual growth in 2024 stood at just 1.3%, a figure substantially lower than the 3.3% recorded in 2023 and below the 2.5% initially projected for 2024.

Additionally, the Bank of Mexico has adjusted its growth forecast for 2025 downward, reducing it from 1.2% to 0.6%.

This revision has intensified fears of a recession, defined as a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters.

Impact of United States Tariff Policies

The recent imposition of 25% tariffs by the United States on Mexican products has caused additional concern.

These measures, effective since March 4, 2025, affect various key industries, including the automotive and manufacturing sectors, which could worsen Mexico's economic situation.

Fiscal Challenges and Public Debt

The new Secretary of Finance, Edgar Amador Zamora, faces multiple economic challenges, including the economic slowdown, a high fiscal deficit, and Pemex's multi-billion-dollar debt.

His strategy includes strengthening collaboration with the private sector and reducing the fiscal deficit to ensure the country's macroeconomic and financial stability.

Outlooks and Warnings from Experts

Economic analysts have expressed concern about the possibility of a recession in Mexico. Alejandro Werner, former Undersecretary of Finance,

mentioned that, in the short term  Mexico could face an economic recession, as has traditionally happened at the beginning of each presidential term.

Additionally, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has pointed out that the new bilateral tariffs will increase the revenues of the governments imposing them.

But otherwise,  they will be a drag on global economic activity, negatively affecting countries like Mexico.

The combination of internal and external factors presents a challenging economic outlook for Mexico in 2025.

Economic authorities will need to implement effective policies to mitigate risks and promote the country's economic stability and growth.