Mexican economy stagnates: Analysts forecast growth of just 0.1% in 2025

The most recent Citi Expectations Survey reveals a bleak outlook for Mexico. Analysts have once again cut their growth estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, placing it at a marginal 0.1%.

This adjustment represents the sixth consecutive reduction, reflecting growing concern about the country's economic direction.

The range of projections is broad and alarming: while Barclays anticipates a growth of 0.7%, Masari Casa de Bolsa foresees a contraction of 0.8%. Additionally, 12 of the 34 institutions consulted estimate a GDP decline this year, including UBS with a projection of -0.7%.

Distrust in government policies

This outlook reflects widespread distrust in the economic policies implemented by the Morena government. The lack of clarity in fiscal strategy, international uncertainty, and decisions that have deterred private investment fuel this skepticism.

Despite a slight growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of the year, analysts agree that it is insufficient to reverse the negative trend.

Inflation and exchange rate: warning signs

Inflation projections remain around 3.80% by the end of 2025. However, the projected exchange rate has been adjusted to 20.80 pesos per dollar, a warning sign about economic stability and confidence in the Mexican peso.

The continued reduction in economic growth expectations is a clear sign that current policies do not generate the necessary confidence among experts and investors.

It is urgent for the government to reassess its economic strategy to avoid prolonged stagnation and create an environment conducive to sustained growth.