According to the preliminary draft of the 2026 Budget, the Government estimates that the official exchange rate will close the year at $1,229, a rate that is practically identical to the current value of the retail dollar.
This estimate suggests that sharp devaluations are not expected in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, a real exchange rate appreciation is projected, with an 8.6% year-on-year decline in bilateral terms.
Projected annual inflation
The Executive forecasts that year-on-year inflation for December 2025 will be 22.7%, a figure that implies a marked slowdown compared to the first five months of the year, which accumulated 13.3%.
If this is achieved, it would require an average monthly inflation rate of 1.9% from June to December, which would reinforce the downward trend highlighted by the ruling party.
GDP growth
The official projection places Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5.2% for 2025. The document presented in Congress indicates that agriculture will expand by 2.1%, industry by 5.3%, and commerce by 7.6%. In total, goods would grow by 5.1% and services by 4.6%.
Other key indicators
- Private consumption: +7.2%
- Public consumption: +5%
- Private investment: +22.7%
- Exports: +3.7%
- Imports: +25.2%
- Trade balance: surplus of USD 4.913 billion
These figures indicate an improvement in domestic economic activity, although also a decline in the trade surplus compared to 2024.
No definitions on inflation and dollar for 2026
Although this is a preliminary budget, the report doesn't yet include the official inflation and exchange rate targets for 2026, which will be presented in September along with the complete project.
Until then, the macroeconomic objectives for next year remain confidential.
