According to the preliminary draft of the 2026 Budget, the Government estimates that the official exchange rate will close the year at $1,229, a rate that is practically identical to the current value of the retail dollar.
This estimate suggests that sharp devaluations are not expected in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, a real exchange rate appreciation is projected, with an 8.6% year-on-year decline in bilateral terms.
Projected annual inflation
The Executive forecasts that year-on-year inflation for December 2025 will be 22.7%, a figure that implies a marked slowdown compared to the first five months of the year, which accumulated 13.3%.
If this is achieved, it would require an average monthly inflation rate of 1.9% from June to December, which would reinforce the downward trend highlighted by the ruling party.
