Fernando Pedrosa: “The fall of Khamenei could accelerate an implosion of the system”

The confirmation of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint US-Israeli bombings marks a turning point in Middle Eastern politics. The offensive, whose central objective was to dismantle the leadership of the Iranian regime, raises questions about the internal stability of the Islamic Republic, the future of its nuclear program and the balance of power in the

region.

In a dialogue after the news broke, historian and political scientist Fernando Pedrosa, a tenured professor at the University of Buenos Aires and a researcher specialized in contemporary political processes, analyzed the possible scenarios after the fall of the supreme leader and warned that Western strategy would not seek a direct invasion, but would accelerate an implosion of the system from within.

Interview with Fernando Pedrosa

—With the confirmation of Khamenei's death, what do you think were the main strategic motivations for directly targeting the supreme leader and how does this change regional

dynamics?

—With regard to Iran, it seems to me that there are two objectives. On the one hand, to end the nuclear plan, but above all with Iran's ability to attack US bases and neighboring countries. And the other objective points directly to the regime.

But regime change cannot occur only with external attacks, because that would require sending troops, thousands of dead, in an election year... it's impossible. In addition, Donald Trump does not believe in such war options.

— Does the removal of Khamenei open a power vacuum that can accelerate an

internal transition?

— The selective elimination of the Iranian leadership aims to create the conditions for internal collapse. Before the attack, conflicts existed within the government: between the ayatollahs, the Revolutionary Guard or actors linked to the president.

With this attack, they are betting on strengthening that internal conflict.

At the same time, they seek to show the opposition that the tyrant or the feared leadership is no longer there, and thus stimulate an internal uprising. It also causes some sector of the same ruling party to be willing to be the “Iranian Delcy Rodríguez”, that is, someone who manages a functional transition to a new

power scheme.

This way of betting on the fall of the regime is much more “economic”, less costly in lives, although it can last longer. Unlike the first attack in 2025, Trump said that he would now continue the attacks, so I suppose he will put the interim leadership of the government in serious trouble.

— How does this situation impact regional balance?

—In addition to the fact that it will be difficult to rebuild internal political authority, the Iranians opposed all Arab monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia.

Two days ago, Narendra Modi was in Israel and this India-Israel-Saudi axis is coming as a very strong actor that can change regional dynamics. I don't see anything good for Iran in the short term.

— What economic consequences do you anticipate at the global level

?

—Iran was already mired in a deep economic crisis that led to the outbreak a few weeks ago. The loss of its central figure and highest authority further complicates the possibility of internal stabilization. Added to that is international pressure, sanctions and the impact it can have on energy markets

.

In short, the situation combines political, military and economic crisis, with effects that are not limited to the Middle East.