According to the survey, La Libertad Avanza would reach 50.8% of the votes at the national level, a percentage that not only exceeds the threshold required by the Constitution to be enshrined in the first round, but also marks a result of strong political weight.
This level of support places the ruling party above relevant historical precedents, even surpassing Carlos Menem's electoral performances in 1989 and 1995, which reinforces the magnitude of the projected scenario.
President Javier Milei.
In the revised electoral scheme, Milei's party consolidates itself as the country's main force, with an enormous advantage that clearly positions it at
the forefront of the national political scene.
Behind La Libertad Avanza, in the first-round scenario, is Peronism/Kirchnerism with 30.3%, while the blank vote reaches 6%.
Further behind are the Left Front with 5.6%, other forces with 2.8%, the undecided with 2.3%and United Provinces with 2.2%.
A possible ballot The president
's strength is also evidenced in a possible ballot.
In a second round against the ultra-Kirchner player Axel Kicillof, Milei would obtain 54.3% ofthe votes against 37.3%, widening the gap and consolidating a 17-point advantage.Javier Milei and Axel Kicillof.
This scenario suggests that the president not only maintains his electoral base, but also manages to attract additional support in instances
of greater polarization.
One of the key factors behind these numbers is the great loyalty of the ruling electorate. According to the survey, 86.1% of those who voted for Milei in 2023 would choose him again, creating a solid and stable core of
support.
In the case of a ballot, that support deepens even more: 89.8% of its original voters would maintain their support, consolidating a very high electoral floor.
From a territorial point of view, the interior of the country appears to be a decisive bastion for the ruling party, with levels of support that make it possible to compensate other districts amply and sustain the national advantage.
With these data, the Arena Pública study projects an electoral scenario in which Javier Milei clearly positions himself as the main candidate for 2027, with numbers that project him towards a possible re-election with broad popular support.
