Milei would exceed 50% of the votes and would win in the first round, according to an electoral poll

Milei would exceed 50% of the votes and would win in the first round, according to an electoral poll
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The study explained that one of the key factors behind this number is the great loyalty of the ruling electorate.

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of greater polarization.

One of the key factors behind these numbers is the great loyalty of the ruling electorate. According to the survey, 86.1% of those who voted for Milei in 2023 would choose him again, creating a solid and stable core of

support.

In the case of a ballot, that support deepens even more: 89.8% of its original voters would maintain their support, consolidating a very high electoral floor.

From a territorial point of view, the interior of the country appears to be a decisive bastion for the ruling party, with levels of support that make it possible to compensate other districts amply and sustain the national advantage.

With these data, the Arena Pública study projects an electoral scenario in which Javier Milei clearly positions himself as the main candidate for 2027, with numbers that project him towards a possible re-election with broad popular support.


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A national survey conducted by the consultancy firm Arena Pública in March 2026 placed President Javier Milei in a very strong position of advantage ahead of the elections of 2027, with levels of voting intention that would allow it to prevail without the need for a second round

.

According to the survey, La Libertad Avanza would reach 50.8% of the votes at the national level, a percentage that not only exceeds the threshold required by the Constitution to be enshrined in the first round, but also marks a result of strong political weight.

This level of support places the ruling party above relevant historical precedents, even surpassing Carlos Menem's electoral performances in 1989 and 1995, which reinforces the magnitude of the projected scenario.

President Javier Milei.
President Javier Milei.

In the revised electoral scheme, Milei's party consolidates itself as the country's main force, with an enormous advantage that clearly positions it at

the forefront of the national political scene.

Behind La Libertad Avanza, in the first-round scenario, is Peronism/Kirchnerism with 30.3%, while the blank vote reaches 6%.

Further behind are the Left Front with 5.6%, other forces with 2.8%, the undecided with 2.3% and United Provinces with 2.2%.

A possible ballot The president

's strength is also evidenced in a possible ballot.

In a second round against the ultra-Kirchner player Axel Kicillof, Milei would obtain 54.3% of the votes against 37.3%, widening the gap and consolidating a 17-point advantage.
Javier Milei and Axel Kicillof.
Javier Milei and Axel Kicillof.

This scenario suggests that the president not only maintains his electoral base, but also manages to attract additional support in instances