Argentina facing the global storm: this time we are better prepared

The global economy is going through one of the greatest turbulences in recent years. The war in the Middle East, rising energy costs, increasing international interest rates, and fears of a new financial crisis are hitting economies around the world. Argentina is no exception. The country risk has risen again, and inflation continues to resist falling.

However, there is a fundamental difference with the crises we have faced over the last few decades: this time Argentina is much better prepared to withstand external shocks. This is a consequence of the economic program that Javier Milei has maintained since December 2023, even in the face of enormous political pressure aimed at making it fail.

The world is in turmoil. Meanwhile, it is striking that those who today denounce a local economic crisis attributed to Milei's management look exclusively at Argentine problems while ignoring the international storm that is also hitting major developed economies.

The storm coming from abroad

Since February, the war in the Middle East has caused enormous disruptions in the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the main oil transport routes on the planet, has become a scene of attacks and interruptions to trade. Only in October, there were 28 confirmed or reported attacks against commercial vessels in the region.

When the international price of oil rises, fuels, transportation, logistics, public services, production costs, and food become more expensive. This led the Federal Reserve of the United States to raise its interest rate in September, and the European Central Bank followed suit, explicitly arguing that the
conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflationary pressures.

Why do we care about what the central banks of the United States and Europe do? Because when the major economies of the world pay higher rates, investors have greater incentives to place their money there. As a consequence, emerging countries like Argentina face greater difficulties in obtaining financing and must offer higher yields to attract investments.

From the run on the currency in 2025 to the recovery of reserves

Just a year ago, we went through a massive currency run. Faced with the possibility of a return of Kirchnerism, millions of Argentines sought to protect their savings by buying dollars. The demand for pesos fell sharply, the exchange rate hit the ceiling of the exchange band, and the Central Bank had to intervene by selling reserves. The United States also intervened to support exchange rate stability, at a time of enormous political and financial uncertainty, thanks to Milei's alliance with Trump.

The damage was significant. An economy trying to recover its currency received a direct blow to confidence. However, Milei, Caputo, and Bausili did not budge an inch from the economic program. Thanks to that, the effect of the run was much less than the collapse in the dollar and inflation that would have occurred without macro stability.

During 2026, the Central Bank resumed the accumulation of reserves, the Government maintained fiscal balance, and the Treasury continued working to organize maturities and improve the financing conditions of the inherited debt. The results are visible. Gross international reserves exceeded USD 50 billion in October. Meanwhile, the wholesale exchange rate remains stable.

Inflation: the problem we still need to defeat

Inflation in September was 1.9% monthly and 33.4% year-on-year. These figures show how far we have come, but also how much is left to go.

In March, core inflation had reached 3.2% monthly. In September, it dropped to 1.7%, even below general inflation. This data is important because core inflation excludes seasonal and regulated prices, allowing for a better observation of underlying dynamics.

For years, we were led to believe that we could pay an electricity bill with the same amount that a pizza cost. But energy was not free. The difference was paid with debt or monetary issuance. They took money from us on one side to return it on the other, while accumulating increasingly larger imbalances. The inflation we suffered was the
result of that irresponsibility.

That is why Javier Milei insists on maintaining the fiscal surplus, even when international conditions become complicated. Because abandoning monetary and fiscal order to artificially stimulate consumption would mean returning to the same vicious circle that led us to stagnation. Argentina does not need another fictitious recovery financed by the Central Bank.

From importing energy to exporting it to the world

Just a few years ago, Argentina had a trade deficit in energy. We imported gas and fuels to supply an economy that, paradoxically, had enormous natural resources beneath its own soil.

Today the situation is completely different. During the first nine months of 2026, Argentina accumulated an energy trade surplus of USD 9.4 billion. Energy exports grew 57% year-on-year and only in September reached USD 1.78 billion. Additionally, September recorded a total trade surplus of USD 2.976 billion, with exports exceeding USD 10 billion.

While other countries have to obtain more and more dollars to import expensive energy, Argentina has a growing capacity to produce and export oil and gas. The international price increase generates pressures on local fuels, but it also increases the potential income of our exporting companies.

At the end of 2023, with a local barrel priced below the international price, production ceased to be profitable, and gas stations ran out of gasoline, even with oil much cheaper than the current price. With the increase in oil due to the war in the Middle East, that same scheme would have led us to a terminal crisis: shortages, fuel imports, energy and trade deficits, and once again issuance as the only solution. It did not happen because the local barrel was eliminated and the RIGI was approved. Producing oil and gas became profitable again, and energy went from being a hole in our external accounts to one of our main sources of dollars for the entire Nation.

This is one of the major structural changes we must consolidate. To move from an economy that ran out of dollars every time it tried to grow, to one that can generate foreign currency through investments, production, and exports.

The RIGI and the reforms aimed at attracting investments are part of that path. Building an energy powerhouse does not happen overnight. It requires investments, infrastructure, technology, workers, and rules that allow for long-term thinking.

National stability is not enough if the provinces do not cooperate

Fiscal balance and monetary stability are necessary conditions for growth, but not sufficient. The activity data compel us to look at this reality: Industry and construction are sectors that need credit, investment, and lower costs to regain dynamism.

But that requires recovering the responsibility that governors and local mayors have: While the Nation reduced its administrative structure, eliminated regulations, and advanced on tax pressure, numerous local governments continue to raise rates, maintain bureaucracies, and punish productive activities with taxes.

How will activity in Commerce and Industry grow if mayors increase municipal rates and taxes? It is not enough to demand growth from the national Government while locally maintaining a scheme that prevents attracting investments. Competition among provinces and municipalities should focus on attracting companies, facilitating investments, and multiplying job opportunities. Not on discovering new ways to collect revenue. You cannot demand from the National Government while putting up local obstacles.

We need to reduce Gross Income, Stamp Taxes, and municipal rates. We need to simplify permits, eliminate absurd regulations, and drastically reduce state spending.

The Argentina that is being born

Those who today announce a new crisis should remember what country we received in December 2023. A broken Central Bank, uncontrolled inflation, twin deficits, price controls that controlled nothing, currency restrictions, and an economy in clear recession.

Today we have a fiscal surplus, a trade surplus, an energy balance that generates dollars, greater accumulation of reserves, and a monetary policy that seeks to definitively recover the value of the peso.

The difference with the old politics is fundamental. Before, in the face of a crisis, the response was to print money, go into debt, freeze prices, and pass the consequences to the next government. Today the decision is to maintain the course, even when obstacles arise.

Because governing consists of laying the foundations for our children to live in a more prosperous country. Argentina has the resources, workers, entrepreneurs, and opportunities to become a regional economic powerhouse. But it needs to persevere in reforms and finish dismantling the structures that have hindered its development for decades.

The global storm is not over yet. It may moderate or deepen. And precisely for that reason, it would be a mistake to abandon the economic order that cost us so much to recover. The challenge now is twofold: to withstand international blows and to accelerate reforms that allow us to transform stability into growth, investment, and better
wages.

We are not doomed