Banks prepare to capture undeclared dollars following new measures

In a context of a declining dollar in international markets,  the Argentine Government, along with the banking system, is working to stimulate the entry of undeclared dollars into the formal circuit by eliminating reports required by the former AFIP (now ARCA) and easing regulations that used to trigger mechanisms like the Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) when unusual movements were recorded.

The drop in the DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against the world's major currencies,  reached its lowest level since February 2022. This occurs alongside growing distrust toward U.S. Treasury bonds, whose 30-year yield reached 5.10%, its highest point since 2007.

Investors change safe havens

The U.S. government's trade policy is altering investors' decisions, who are abandoning sovereign bonds and migrating toward assets like gold and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin reached a new record by surpassing USD 111,000, while global central banks are expected to start replacing bonds with gold.

This international context has a direct impact on Argentina. Yesterday, various companies made placements of Negotiable Obligations: Telecom issued USD 800 million at 9.5%, Pluspetrol USD 450 million at 8.75%, Supervielle USD 60 million at 4.5%, and John Deere USD 41 million at 7.5%.

Local markets: mixed signals

The S&P Merval closed with a 0.20% drop, failing to chain two consecutive days of gains. The only notable exceptions were Transportadora Gas del Norte (+2.5%) and Central Puerto (+2.3%). In the banking sector,  only VALO closed higher, with a 1% increase driven by a total comprehensive net result of $13,229 million, representing a 291.5% year-on-year increase.

Meanwhile,  Argentine ADRs in New York benefited from the rise in the cash with settlement (CCL), which remained around $1,163.

The dollar continues to retreat

Financial and blue dollars retreated due to new official measures that simplify banking. The MEP fell 0.5% to $1,143.50, and the blue dropped $10, closing at $1,165. The gap between the MEP and the official exchange rate is just 1%.

In the Free Exchange Market, USD 524 million were traded, and the reference exchange rate retreated 0.12% to $1,143.58. Meanwhile, the wholesale dollar ended at $1,136.50.

Dollar futures contracts also showed declines, as in the cases of August and December, which stood at $1,300 (-0.57%).