The BCRA's consulting firm forecasts less than 2% monthly inflation for the rest of the year.

In a historic turn that marks a turning point in Argentina's economic policy, private analysts consulted by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) project that inflation will remain below 2% per month throughout the remainder of 2025. This strong forecast, drawn from the June Market Expectations Survey (REM), confirms the success of the stabilization plan led by President Javier Milei.

In detail, the report anticipates inflation of just 1.8% for June, which represents a drop of one-tenth compared to the previous survey. For the second half of the year, the projections show a clear continuation of disinflation: July (1.7%), August (1.6%), September (1.7%), October (1.7%), November (1.5%), and December (1.7%). If this scenario materializes, inflation would close the year at around 27%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to previous estimates.

This data becomes even more relevant considering that just seven months ago, Argentina was facing imminent hyperinflation with monthly levels close to 30%. Today, with the implementation of a severe fiscal adjustment, the reduction of public spending, and monetary discipline, Milei has achieved a milestone that once seemed unattainable.

Analysts also foresee a continuous improvement for 2026: although the report doesn't provide month-by-month details, it does estimate a year-on-year inflation rate of 20.8% for the next twelve months. In other words, a significant decrease in price dynamics is projected, consolidating a scenario of stability.

Dollar and exchange rate:

Another relevant REM data point is the forecast for the exchange rate. In this case, the estimates are not based on the retail dollar, but on the wholesale exchange rate. After the gradual lifting of currency controls, the end of the crawling peg scheme, and the transition to a managed floating band system, the market projects a moderate slide of the dollar.

For July, the wholesale exchange rate is expected to reach $1,207, representing an increase of $25.5 compared to the previous REM. However, it remains below retail market values, which closed this Thursday at $1,260. For December, it is estimated to reach levels higher than last month's forecast. The signal is clear: there is stability on the exchange front and confidence in monetary policy.

The survey also reflects a change in sentiment regarding economic activity. Experts have improved their projection for the second quarter of 2025: they now estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, two-tenths higher than in the previous measurement. In addition, they foresee an increase of 0.7% in the third quarter and 0.6% in the fourth, consolidating a gradual recovery.

On an annual basis, the REM projects 5% growth in 2025 compared to 2024. Although this figure is 0.2 points lower than in the previous survey, it remains a clearly positive result for a country that has experienced years of stagnation.

Regarding the performance of wholesale fixed-term deposits (Tamar), a gradual decline is expected, in line with the reduction in inflation. According to experts, the average nominal annual rate (TNA) will be 33% in July, and will decrease slowly to 27.99% in December. For June 2026, it is expected to be around 24.24%. This downward path shows that the Central Bank will not need to resort to prohibitive rates to control prices, which is a sign of a more balanced macroeconomy.