The removal of the
currency control did not generate a significant inflationary impact, according to the first
estimates made by private consultancies cited by Infobae, just over a week after the implementation of the new exchange scheme promoted by the Government of
Javier Milei.
This situation marks a difference compared to previous regime changes, where the effect on prices was more immediate. This time, the pass-through to prices was
practically null, very different from what was predicted by the "specialists."
Among the factors explaining this moderation are the
stability of the exchange rate, the deceleration of some sectors compared to what was observed in March, and the elimination of monetary issuance, which
doesn't allow for significant increases.
The consultancy Eco Go recorded an
inflation of 1.3% in the third week of April, representing an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week. For the entire month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimate is between
3% and 3.5%,
below the 3.7% recorded in March according to Indec data. It is important to remember that, after the removal of the currency control, "economists" claimed that April's inflation would soar above 5%.
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"
The cut in the projection is due to smaller-than-expected increases in food, within the context of the new exchange scheme. With the limited volatility of the exchange rate, the impact was limited," said
Sebastián Menescaldi, director of Eco Go.
"
Our survey doesn't show a strong acceleration in price increases. Even last week it decelerated compared to the previous one. In that line, the inflation projection for April for now is slightly higher than March's," said
Claudio Caprarulo, director of the consultancy Analytica.
The initial jump of the dollar, which was 10.4% when the new exchange scheme was implemented, caused preventive price hikes by some companies. However, in many cases, those increases
were reversed. A clear example was the rejection by supermarkets and wholesalers of lists with increases of up to 9% by mass consumption companies, a measure celebrated by the Minister of Economy,
Luis "Toto" Caputo, on the social network X.
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In the commercial sector, they emphasize that consumers are not in a position to absorb significant increases. "
We have to take care of the customer, we can't validate any price," they said from a supermarket chain.
In the same line, Milei's Government managed to get prepaid medicine companies to revise down the increases planned for May. There were also cases in the automotive sector where announced increases
were later canceled.
Camilo Tiscornia, director of the consultancy C&T, estimated that
April's inflation could be around 3% or even lower. "
In many sectors, there were strong increases in March and perhaps in the second week of April. In the third week, there were decreases, such as in fruits and vegetables and Education, which recorded lower increases than last month," he indicated.
