The Government of Javier Milei, through the Secretariat of Energy of the Nation, published a key report revealing the enormous gas potential of Argentina, with special emphasis on Vaca Muerta. The study projects that unconventional gas resources could supply domestic demand for a period ranging between 63 and 162 years, depending on the pace of exploitation and exportation. Titled Declaration of Availability of Gas Resources in the Long Term, the report aims to provide an accurate diagnosis of the sustainability of local supply and the feasibility of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export projects, especially within the framework of the national plan to position Argentina as a global player in the energy market. The document, officially published through Resolution 157/2025 in the Official Gazette, was prepared by the National Directorate of Exploration and Production along with university experts and technicians from various institutions. Among its main contributions, it highlights the need for a “firm and uninterrupted base” of resources to support the development of large-scale export projects. Gasoducto. The study will be reviewed every five years or upon the presentation of new significant export projects, thus allowing projections to be adjusted to technological advances and the dynamics of the global energy market.
The Three Possible Scenarios
The report outlines three possible scenarios. The first assumes that current levels of domestic consumption are maintained, along with the exports recorded in 2024, which were fully covered with national production, without the need to import. In this case, if exports remain at 1,590 million cubic meters per year (MMm3) and consumption is at 41,167 MMm3, the available resources would be sufficient to supply for 162 years. El informe. The second scenario is based on the minimum projected volumes for constant LNG developments, estimated at about 21,900 MMm3 per year. If sustained natural gas exports are set at 7,300 MMm3 annually and consumption reaches 73,000 MMm3 per year, the estimated duration of the resources would be 68 years. In the scenario with low investment in LNG, it is projected that the first ship will arrive in 2027, followed by one of 2.2 MTPA in 2028. Subsequently, between 2030 and 2035, three additional ships with the same capacity (2.2 MTPA each) would be incorporated. Finally, the last scenario estimates a resource duration of 63 years, considering the maximum values of LNG projections, with an annual production of 29,200 MMm3. Both natural gas exports and domestic consumption remain at the levels of the second scenario.
