Although a slight slowdown is expected compared to 2025, the country will maintain one of the highest expansion rates in the emerging world.
Optimistic forecasts: 5.4% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026
According to the IIF, the Argentine economy will grow by 5.4% in 2025 and by 3.9% in 2026. This latter figure is the highest among Latin American countries. In contrast, Brazil would grow only 2.1% in 2026 (vs. 2.5% this year), while Colombia and Peru would record increases of 2.7%. Venezuela, meanwhile, would face a contraction of 2.8%.
The region, in general, will have low dynamism: Latin America would grow just 1.9% in 2026, and global growth would be 2.6%. Emerging countries as a whole will have an expansion close to 3.8%.
Bancos internacionales afirman que Argentina tendrá el mayor crecimiento de la región
Factors driving Argentina's recovery
The report indicates that Argentina's economic rebound will be driven mainly by:
Private consumption, thanks to the recovery of purchasing power driven by a rapid decline in inflation.
The return of investment, favored by the elimination of exchange controls.
Improved confidence and the return of private capital in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and mining.
These growth drivers are reflected in recent INDEC data, which showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in GDP in the first quarter of 2025, with strong momentum from consumption and demand for imported goods.
Comparison with other projections
Although the IIF is optimistic, its growth forecast of 3.9% for 2026 is below the IMF's estimate, which projects an expansion of 5.5%.
Both institutions agree that Argentina will benefit from its lower exposure to the global cycle, as it is an economy focused on the domestic market and from a reactivation of key sectors after years of low investment.
Bancos internacionales afirman que Argentina tendrá el mayor crecimiento de la región
Capital flows and foreign investment
The IIF also anticipates greater capital inflows into Argentina in 2025-2026, supported by:
Investment opportunities in strategic sectors
Multilateral financing
Repatriation of external assets
Fiscal consolidation and investor confidence
Nevertheless, it warns that the rebuilding of international reserves remains a top priority challenge to sustain long-term financial stability.
