Javier Milei estimated that inflation would fall below 2% between April and May.

After the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reported that February's inflation stood at 2.4%, President Javier Milei projected that in April or May the price increase could fall below 2%, thus consolidating the disinflation process.

From his account on the social network X, Milei highlighted the success of his economic plan, noting that if the impact of the meat price increase were discounted, the real inflation would have been 1.8%.

"KEY DATA: If we clean up the specific effect of what happened with meat, the inflation rate would have been 1.8%. Meanwhile, March also has seasonality issues, but if the economic course is maintained, in April/May it could break 2%... VLLC!", stated the president.

Support for his diagnosis was quick to arrive from the economic team. Martín Vauthier, director of the Foreign Trade and Investment Bank (BICE), explained that the 2.4% increase was conditioned by a 3.2% rise in the "Food and non-alcoholic beverages" category, mainly driven by the increase in beef prices.

"There was an impact of approximately 0.6 percentage points caused by the seasonal rise in the 'Meats and Derivatives' variety. Discounting this specific effect, the month's inflation was around 1.8% monthly", he detailed.

Meanwhile, the director of the Central Bank, Federico Furiase, added another key piece of data: "Services slowed down from 3.8% to 3.1%. Fiscal surplus and fixed money supply to continue the disinflation process".

The Indec report confirmed that the price increase was marked by seasonal factors. Meat was the product that rose the most in February, with increases of up to 13.6% in cuts like rump, sirloin (13.1%), shoulder (12.6%), and ground beef (11.3%).

However, Milei's government highlighted that year-on-year inflation continues to decrease in a context of economic growth. According to official data, the level of activity increased by 5.5% in December, the population's income increased by 18% year-on-year, and credit to the private sector rose by 4.6% in February.

In terms of trend, the three-month moving average of inflation stood at 2.4%, the lowest record since August 2020, while the six-month average was 2.7%, the lowest since October of that year. From the Ministry of Economy, they emphasized that these numbers reflect that "the path of reducing inflation that began in 2024 is sustainable".

The success of Milei's economic model is evident: inflation went from alarming levels under Kirchnerism to figures that begin to resemble those of more orderly economies.

While opposing sectors still resist admitting the change, reality speaks for itself. Inflation continues to fall, and economic indicators show clear signs of recovery.