Kast swept in the poorest districts, while the communist Jara did so in the wealthiest areas.

Kast swept in the poorest districts, while the communist Jara did so in the wealthiest areas.
José Antonio Kast
porEditorial Team
Argentina

The study shows that Jara failed in low-income districts, where Kast led comfortably

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A report prepared by Universidad del Desarrollo (UDD) has once again brought to the forefront a phenomenon that Chilean politics has tried to conceal since election night: the fracture of the vote according to income level. The analysis, titled Communal Voting Patterns in the 2025 Presidential Election, clearly shows that Jeannette Jara's performance fell far short of expectations in the lowest-income municipalities, while José Antonio Kast was the one who achieved the greatest support in working-class sectors.

The data is compelling. Jara, who advanced to the runoff with 26.85% at the national level, obtained just 19.38% in the poorest municipalities. Her performance improves as the average income rises, reaching 25.43% in the areas with the highest purchasing power. This pattern confirms a structural problem for the ruling coalition: a growing disconnect with the sectors it should most represent.

Jara y Kast.
Jara y Kast.

Kast, meanwhile, showed the opposite trend. The Republican Party candidate prevailed with a solid 33.64% in the lowest-income municipalities, surpassing projections that had set a much lower baseline for him. However, his vote share drops noticeably in the highest-income quintile. This way, the electoral map left the left clinging to affluent enclaves and Kast firmly established in working-class sectors, a phenomenon that completely reshapes the traditional narrative of Chilean politics.

The report also devotes a key section to the Franco Parisi phenomenon, who became the great disruptor of the election day by reaching an unexpected 19.69% and tripling his 2021 performance. His electorate, far from being a diffuse or "anti-system" bloc, appears to be associated with a very clear pattern. According to UDD, Parisi's vote correlates much more strongly with the Rejection of the 2022 constitutional plebiscite than with the Approval.

Franco Parisi.
Franco Parisi.

The university shows that, when including the economist within the opposition bloc, the correlation with the Rejection vote rises to 0.963. Without him, the Rejection–Right correlation plummets to 0.577. The conclusion is straightforward: Parisi captures a decisive portion of the electorate that in 2022 opposed the left's constitutional project. That group will be decisive for the runoff.

Meanwhile, Jara is now attempting a belated self-critique and insists that her challenge is to "connect with the citizenry," but UDD's figures show that the distance from working-class sectors is not a communication problem, but a structural one. Kast emerges strengthened by the surprise of having won precisely where the ruling coalition expected to retain ground.


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