Legislative elections in PBA: La Libertad Avanza leads the voting intention

The consulting firm Giacobbe & Asociados released a survey this Wednesday on public image and voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires. The survey, conducted between February 28 and March 3, 2025, included 1,500 cases and presents a margin of error of 2.5%. The results reveal concerning data for both PRO and Peronism and Kirchnerism, as they show a steady advance of La Libertad Avanza in a key district. Regarding positive image, the Minister of National Security, Patricia Bullrich, leads with 54%, closely followed by President Javier Milei, with 53.1%, while Vice President Victoria Villarruel reaches 35.3%.

Within the opposition space, the ultra-Kirchnerist governor Axel Kicillof leads with 30%, surpassing former President Mauricio Macri, who obtains 27.5%, the corruption-convicted Cristina Kirchner, with 25.1%, and Sergio Massa, who barely reaches 13.8%. Looking ahead to the 2025 legislative elections, the outlook is especially challenging for the opposition. José Luis Espert leads the positive image ranking with 46%, followed by Diego Santilli with 33.6%, and Diego Valenzuela, former PRO and current LLA, with 32.9%. Within Kirchnerism, Gabriel Katopodis is the best-positioned leader, reaching a poor 23.6%, although his level of recognition remains limited compared to other figures in his space. The outlook is even more challenging for Kirchnerist figures like Victoria Tolosa Paz, Mayra Mendoza, and Florencio Randazzo, who do not exceed 20% positive image and accumulate more than 60% negative image, significantly reducing their chances of attracting votes in a highly polarized scenario.

Meanwhile, the internal divisions in PRO and Peronism continue fragmenting their support bases, which could further complicate their performance in the upcoming elections.

Insecurity

A relevant piece of data from the study is linked to the perception of the main problems of the province. Insecurity ranks as the main concern for Buenos Aires residents. This issue leads the concerns in the province governed by Axel Kicillof, with 64.7% of respondents believing that the situation has worsened in the last decade, compared to 11.1% who think it has improved. This perception is reflected in the voting intention, where La Libertad Avanza leads with 41% support, far surpassing Kirchnerism, which obtains 21%, and PRO, which barely reaches 11.6%. Other forces, such as non-Kirchnerist Peronism, the Left Front, and the UCR, remain with figures below 10%. With these results, Milei's administration strengthens its position in Buenos Aires territory, while the opposition faces a difficult scenario, marked by the lack of strong leadership and fragmentation that limits its electoral competitiveness.