Marco Rubio's strategy: Venezuela is the key to weakening Cuba

Marco Rubio, current Secretary of State and acting National Security advisor to Donald Trump, has upheld a central idea for years. He keeps that in order to strike the Cuban regime, one must start with Venezuela.

According to his assessment, Havana keeps Nicolás Maduro in power through support in intelligence, security, and political advising. That's why removing him from the Palacio de Miraflores would cut off that support and destabilize the Cuban government.

Venezuela as a lever against Cuba

The hypothesis is not new, but today it guides much of the U.S. strategy in the Caribbean. Juan Gonzalez, former advisor to former president Joe Biden, summarized it as follows: "His theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba." In that context, he explained, "once Venezuela falls, Cuba will follow."

Rubio has hinted at this idea in public for years. In a 2019 interview with NPR, he stated that "a weakened Cuba would be a welcome consequence of a change of government in Venezuela". However, he clarified that it was not "the central reason" for removing Maduro.

2019: the breaking point and the role of Cuban intelligence

The experience of 2019 marked a turning point in Washington: in April of that year, protests and military defections were taking place in Venezuela. Then-president Trump received a call before dawn with encouraging news of Caracas's weakness. According to John Bolton's memoirs, Trump reacted with surprise at the opportunity: "Wow."

Manifestantes de la oposición se enfrentan a soldados venezolanos tras un intento de derrocamiento en abril de 2019

The offensive failed and, according to former U.S. officials, the conclusion was clear: the decisive factor was not Maduro's internal support, but Cuba's role. Cuban intelligence reportedly alerted the Chavista leader about the conspiracy and agents on Venezuelan soil reportedly collaborated to crush it. It was even mentioned that Cuba had "a plane waiting" to evacuate Maduro to Havana.

In that context, Rubio sought to establish his own framing of the episode: "The only coup is the one carried out by Cuba in support of dictator Maduro", he wrote at the time. Since there can't be a coup against a government that is not democratic.

Venezuela as a lever against Cuba

2019: the breaking point and the role of Cuban intelligence

Military pressure, oil, and an open debate in Washington

Since his return to power, Trump has once again hardened pressure on Venezuela, with Rubio as one of the main architects of the strategy. In recent months, the United States has amassed military forces near the Caribbean country and attacked vessels. Those boats were occupied by drug traffickers coming from the Chavista country.

The pressure also shifted to the energy sector: this week, Washington seized an oil tanker with Venezuelan crude in the Caribbean. According to The New York Times, the cargo had been partially transferred to another vessel bound for Cuba before heading to China.

According to recent data from Pdvsa cited by Reuters, Venezuela currently sends about 27,000 barrels per day to Cuba. This constitutes only a quarter of what it received during the peak of Hugo Chávez.

The link between Caracas and Havana dates back to the alliance between Fidel Castro and Chávez, when Venezuela supplied nearly 100,000 barrels per day of oil at preferential prices. In exchange, Cuba sent thousands of military and intelligence officers to train and monitor Venezuelan security forces.

Hugo Chávez abrazando a Fidel Castro en La Habana en 1994

Juan Gonzalez described that control bluntly: "All members of the army and presidential security are under scrutiny." He added: "They are handpicked and watched like hawks. If they step out of line, they end up in prison and are tortured to death."

Although the flow of resources has decreased, Havana still considers the survival of Chavismo a vital interest. Rubio's approach, however, is not without criticism. Benjamin Rhodes warned that "it is much more likely that Cuba will collapse and become a failed state than that some kind of orderly transition will occur."

Even within Trumpism, the "regime change" policy generates resistance. Figures such as Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and Laura Loomer questioned the costs and historical failures of that approach. For Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative, many hawks see the leftist governments in the region as "ultimately rather hapless appendages of Havana."

In short, despite the various views, the reality is that the United States is committed to ending the Venezuelan regime and its allies.

Marco Rubio's strategy: Venezuela is the key to weakening Cuba

Venezuela as a lever against Cuba

2019: the breaking point and the role of Cuban intelligence

Marco Rubio's strategy: Venezuela is the key to weakening Cuba

Venezuela as a lever against Cuba

2019: the breaking point and the role of Cuban intelligence

Military pressure, oil, and an open debate in Washington

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