The complaint filed by Leonidas Iza against the polling company Estrategas has reached a key stage. Judge Ivonne Coloma, from the Electoral Contentious Tribunal (TCE), has scheduled the evidence presentation hearing for April 28.
Iza, former presidential candidate for Pachakutik and president of Conaie, accused Diego Tello, director of Estrategas, of releasing an exit poll outside the permitted hours. This poll favored the elected president Daniel Noboa with 50.12% support.
According to the accusation, the publication violated article 283 of the Democracy Code, which regulates the technical rigor of surveys. The company defended itself by stating that its margin of error was ±2.98%, within the legal limit of ±3%.
In contrast, the official results from the National Electoral Council (CNE) confirmed Noboa's victory with 55.63% in the second round. The candidate from correísmo, Luisa González, obtained only 44.37%, despite her initial challenge to the polls.
The polling company Estrategas was the only one to make its data public in the first round, something other firms avoided. In the second round, companies like Telcodata also projected Noboa's victory, validating the initial trend.
Meanwhile, the candidacy of Luisa González was weakened by a worn-out strategy, based on the image of Rafael Correa, the young leader of ADN positioned himself with more modern proposals. Daniel Noboa bet on transparency and technical analysis in his campaign, which contrasted with the confrontational narrative of the Citizen Revolution.
The president of the CNE, Diana Atamaint, anticipated that reforms to the survey regulations will be evaluated. This responds to the criticisms arising from the alleged ambiguity in handling margins of error and methodologies. The April 28 hearing will set a precedent on the role of polling companies in democratic processes. At the same time, it will show whether Iza's complaint responds to a legal concern or an attempt to delegitimize the advance of the center-right.
Daniel Noboa continues consolidating his leadership with technical and political support, in contrast to the challenges of an opposition seeking to reposition itself. The lack of adaptation of correísmo evidences a model that no longer connects with the majority of the electorate.
