Moody's raised Argentina's credit rating from Caa1 to B3

In a historic turn that confirms the strength of the economic program of Javier Milei, Moody’s Ratings decided to upgrade the credit rating of Argentina from Caa1 to B3, also changing the outlook from stable to positive.

This strategic move is not an isolated event, but aligns Moody’s with the recent upgrades from Fitch Ratings (from CCC+ to B-) and S&P Global Ratings (from CCC+ to B-), achieving that all three major agencies rate the country at an equivalent of B- for the first time in over a decade.

The American rating agency was categorical in explaining that the success of the macroeconomic stabilization driven by the Government of Javier Milei has led to a “significant decrease in Argentina's default risk”.

According to the report, the economic adjustment has successfully surpassed its initial phase, paving the way for a “more lasting” improvement in the country’s credit fundamentals. This phenomenon is supported by three fundamental pillars that the libertarian administration has staunchly defended: the decline in inflation, the liberalization of the economy, and, above all, the sustained fiscal surplus.

From a technical perspective, Moody’s highlights that, unlike failed attempts in the past, the current program has a central anchor: the balance of public accounts. The agency states that “the fiscal surplus constitutes the central anchor of the stabilization program”, as it is the tool that supports disinflation, reduces financial vulnerabilities, and restores credibility to state policies. This commitment translates into extremely optimistic projections for the medium term:

An estimated growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 4.5% for 2025, followed by 3.4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.

A drastic reduction in inflation, projected at 31.5% for the year 2025.

A fiscal balance equivalent to 0.2% of GDP.

The external front also shows a structural transformation driven by investor confidence. Thanks to the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), there is already a portfolio of projects worth US$ 141.7 billion (about 20% of GDP), with around US$ 45 billion already in the execution stage in strategic sectors such as energy and mining.

This has allowed the Central Bank (BCRA) to accumulate more than US$ 11 billion in reserves during the first half of 2026 without generating tensions in the exchange rate, marking a genuine recovery of the country’s external position.

Finally, this confidence shock directly impacts the markets. Analysts expect the rating improvement to expand the universe of international investors, which would boost the prices of Argentine assets and compress the country risk.

Currently operating around 410 basis points, it is expected that the country risk will converge towards the average of countries rated “B”, settling between 300 and 330 points.

In this scenario of financial euphoria, increases of between 5.9% and 6.8% are estimated for dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, with titles such as Bonar 2035 (AL35) and Bonar 2041 (AL41) standing out, while banking stocks of entities like Galicia and Macro could experience increases close to 5%. The Argentina of Milei has not only avoided the abyss but has begun its definitive takeoff towards economic freedom.