Moody's estimates that loans to the private sector could grow up to 50% in real terms this year, driven by increased banking competition, rate compression, and the advancement of the capital market.
In its latest report on the Argentine financial system, the international agency highlighted that the new economic scheme implemented by Javier Milei's government has begun to generate substantial changes in the credit dynamics, particularly in the realm of financing in pesos and dollars.
The portfolio in pesos leads the growth
Moody's indicates that the main driver of this expansion will be consumer-related loans and new mortgages. The rating agency also foresees an increase in dollar loans, mainly aimed at exporting companies in the agricultural and energy sectors.
The participation of private credit within the banking system grew significantly: it went from 23% in 2023 to 40% in the first months of 2025. This rise contrasts with the decline in public sector financing, which in April 2024 represented 51.3% of the system's assets.
More credit in 2025
The report indicates that credit penetration reached 10.9% of GDP in 2024 and could climb to 13% in 2025. Although the ratio remains below regional averages, it represents an improvement compared to the historical lows of 2023.
