A recent survey revealed that although the politician convicted of corruption Cristina Kirchner were to achieve an electoral victory in Buenos Aires Province next Sunday, September 7, she would not manage to win in a nationwide election.
The survey, which included 2,160 interviews, was conducted between June 4 and 5, 2025, and was carried out by the consulting firm DC Consultores, just a few days after the former president announced her candidacy for deputy for the third electoral district of the province.
The most notable finding of the report is that even if CFK were to win the Buenos Aires contest in September, 80.9% of those surveyed believe that she would not be elected by the public in a presidential election, while 19.1% stated that a good result in the Province would position her to compete for the presidency in the future.
Cristina Kirchner.
Last Monday, the national leader of the Justicialist Party confirmed her candidacy as a provincial legislator for the third district, a historic stronghold of Peronism that includes municipalities such as La Matanza and Lomas de Zamora, with an electoral roll of five million people.
Who can defeat Cristina
Three months before the Buenos Aires legislative elections, which were separated from the national elections, 42.8% of participants stated that any political figure could defeat Cristina because "people are tired."
In second place, 21.9% mentioned the Minister of National Security, Patricia Bullrich, as a possible winner against the Justicialist leader. Governor Axel Kicillof was just behind, with 20.2% of preferences.
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Among other possible contenders who could defeat Cristina Kirchner in the local elections, national deputy José Luis Espert was mentioned, with 11.4% support, and libertarian influencer Daniel Parisini, known on social media as "El Gordo Dan," who received 3.7% of preferences.
Faced with the hypothesis of a possible electoral defeat for the former president in September, the study also explored her political future. 79.4% of those surveyed considered that she should retire from public life, compared to 20.6% who believed that she should remain in the race.
Which party should govern the province
Regarding the governance of Buenos Aires Province, 65.2% expressed that La Libertad Avanza should take control of the territory, while 22.9% supported the continuation of Peronism. Lower in the preferences were Kirchnerism, with 6.7%, and the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), with 5.2%.
La encuesta.
The most recent survey conducted by CB Consultora assessed the electoral landscape in Buenos Aires Province ahead of the 2025 elections, focusing on the contest between La Libertad Avanza and Kirchnerism.
According to its data, La Libertad Avanza leads voting intentions with 31.6%, ahead of Kirchnerism, which reaches 31%. Taking into account the study's margin of error, the 0.6% difference between the two groups translates into a technical tie. Further behind are non-Kirchnerist Peronism, with 7.1%, and PRO, which reaches 6.4%.
Additionally, the report evaluated the electoral ceiling—excluding undecided voters—of the main political leaders in Buenos Aires Province. Cristina Kirchner leads this indicator with 44.4%: 27% would firmly choose her and another 17.4% indicated they would be willing to vote for her.
