The Country Risk in Argentina recorded a sharp drop this Monday, reaching a new low in over eight years, in a context of improvement in global markets and positive signals regarding the local economy.
The indicator prepared by JP Morgan fell by 11 units, settling at 425 basis points, its lowest level since April 27, 2018, when it had marked 419 points.
The decline occurred on a day marked by a favorable international scenario. Global markets began the week with widespread gains, while oil prices plummeted more than 5% following the announcement of a provisional agreement between the United States and Iran.
Flag of Argentina
This understanding aims to end three months of conflict and allow the total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor through which approximately 20% of the world's crude supply flows.
In this context, the main indicators on Wall Street rose by up to 2%, driven by a strong boost from technology stocks. This more optimistic global climate also impacted Argentine assets.
Sovereign bonds in dollars, both Bonares and Globals, resumed an upward trend with average increases close to 1%. This behavior directly contributed to the reduction of country risk, in line with a downward trend that reflects a improvement in investor perception.
President Javier Milei
Locally, the positive performance of assets was also supported by recent decisions from credit rating agencies. S&P (Standard and Poor’s) raised the rating of Argentine sovereign debt and some ADRs traded in New York, a measure that had been anticipated by a similar decision from Fitch.
In particular, S&P Global Ratings upgraded the long-term foreign currency debt rating from CCC+ to B- with a stable outlook. This increase was based on a series of economic factors that strengthen the country's financial position.
Among the highlighted elements are the sustained fiscal balance demonstrated by the Government of Javier Milei, the deceleration of inflation in recent months, the robust accumulation of reserves by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), and a greater certainty in the ability to meet external debt maturities expected between 2026 and 2027.
Thus, the combination of a more favorable international environment and macroeconomic order at the local level continues to generate a positive impact on Argentine financial indicators, with country risk as one of the main reflections of this improvement.
