Donald Trump's administration decided not to politically support María Corina Machado as a possible replacement for Nicolás Maduro. The decision came after an internal assessment of the risks of greater United States intervention in Venezuela.
The conclusion was not linked to an alleged "resentment" over the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, as was said on social media, but to a strategic analysis of costs, stability, and the opposition's real capacity.
First, Trump was persuaded by senior officials in his administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. They warned that explicit support for the opposition could generate greater destabilization and force Washington to expand its military presence in the neighboring country.
A classified intelligence report from the CIA matched that assessment. The White House considered that it was not willing to commit more resources after the operation that led to Maduro's capture.
Divergent assessments of the regime's strength
Another point highlighted by the U.S. newspaper was the growing frustration of U.S. officials with the assessments they received from Machado about the strength of the Chavista regime. Doubts began to arise in Washington about the accuracy of those assessments, and about the opposition's effective capacity to achieve a change of power.
From the perspective of the Trump administration, the Venezuelan situation required not only political will, but also leadership capable of clearly reading the situation and managing political timing in an extremely complex scenario.
Grenell's role and the unfinished efforts
In that context, Richard Grenell, Trump's special envoy, held meetings with Machado's representatives. During those contacts, he requested two specific elements: an in-person meeting with the opposition leader in Caracas and a list of political prisoners whose release the United States could demand from the regime.
