US intelligence fears that Pakistan may develop an intercontinental nuclear missile

U.S. intelligence indicates that Pakistan is making progress in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with nuclear capability that could reach the U.S. mainland, according to a report published by Foreign Affairs.

If realized, this development would mark a significant expansion of Islamabad's strategic military reach, raising the perceived threat by Washington and possibly leading the United States to formally classify Pakistan as a nuclear adversary.

Although Pakistan has maintained for years that its nuclear program is solely intended to deter India, a country with conventional military superiority, U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Islamabad is now developing an ICBM with the additional objective of deterring the United States.

The purpose would be to prevent both a possible preemptive strike to eliminate its nuclear arsenal and a potential U.S. intervention in favor of India in a regional conflict.

ICBMs usually have a range greater than 3,418 miles (5,500 km) and can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. If this development is confirmed, it would be a notable shift in Pakistan's strategic doctrine, which until now had been limited to medium-range missiles aimed exclusively at India.

The report also suggests that Pakistan's progress in this area has been indirectly facilitated by its close relationship with China. Although Beijing has not publicly expressed support for the ICBM program, it has provided ongoing military and economic assistance to Islamabad, which would have strengthened its missile infrastructure. This implicit collaboration between the two countries could intensify tensions with both New Delhi and Washington.

South Asian security experts emphasize that this possible evolution of Pakistan's nuclear program represents a new escalation in the regional arms race.

For decades, Pakistan has relied on its nuclear arsenal as a counterbalance to India's conventional military superiority. However, the development of a missile capable of reaching U.S. territory implies a qualitative change in its deterrence strategy and a possible internationalization of the regional conflict.

Additionally, Pakistan's development of an ICBM revives longstanding concerns in Washington about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenals. The country's internal political instability, along with the presence of extremist groups, fuels fears that these long-range weapons could fall into the wrong hands or be used irresponsibly.