The economic reality once again supports President Javier Milei's management. April's inflation would have been lower than March's, despite the lifting of the currency control, a long-awaited and feared milestone by sectors betting on the failure of the libertarian model. Most private consultancies agree that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth month of the year would be below the 3.7% officially recorded in March.
The official figure will be published by the INDEC next Wednesday, May 14, but there is already a growing consensus on the price slowdown. The latest Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank, even projected a CPI of just 2.2% for April. Although private studies were somewhat more cautious—EcoGo estimated 3%, Equilibra 3.3%, and LCG 3.5%—they all agree on a central point: inflation not only didn't skyrocket after the control was lifted, but it continued to decline.
"For April we expect inflation around 3.5% monthly, a level similar to March's. This is due to a beginning of the month still with uncertainty regarding the economic future", explained from LCG. In that line, they warned that regulated products—such as prepaid, transportation, and telephony—will continue to increase, but with less impact. The rise in that sector remained above 2%. In contrast, seasonal prices, which had strongly risen in March due to the increase in vegetables, lost momentum.
Equilibra, meanwhile, calculated 3.3% inflation in April, with a core inflation that advanced 3.4% and regulated prices 2.5%. "Core inflation remained relatively stable, in a context of less pressure from non-seasonal food and beverages," they noted from the consultancy, highlighting the trend toward stability.
