Chinese exports fall to their lowest level in six months due to tensions with the U.S.

China's foreign trade showed signs of cooling in August. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, exports grew 4.4% year-on-year, below the 5% forecast and the 7.2% recorded in July. This is the weakest performance in six months, reflecting the impact of U.S. trade policy.

Imports also disappointed: they rose 1.3% compared to the 3% expected by economists, after having increased 4.1% in July.

Trump's blow and market diversification

Tariff tensions with the United States remain the biggest challenge for the Chinese economy. Shipments to that country plummeted 33.1% year-on-year in August. Meanwhile, sales to Southeast Asian nations grew 22.5%, and there were also increases to Africa and Latin America.

Nonetheless, no other market can replace the scale of U.S. consumption, which absorbed more than $400 billion annually in Chinese goods. Analysts warn that if Trump's tariffs exceed 35%, Chinese exports will become unsustainable in several sectors.

Fragile truce and stalled negotiations

On August 11, both powers extended the tariff truce for 90 days, temporarily halting new 30% and 10% levies in both directions. However, negotiations have failed to unlock a more lasting agreement.

The recent visit of negotiator Li Chenggang to Washington did not yield concrete results. Meanwhile, Trump again threatened 40% tariffs on goods considered "transshipped" to evade previous tariffs.

Trade surplus and doubts about stimulus

China's trade surplus reached $102.3 billion in August, a figure higher than July's ($98.24 billion) but below the June peak ($114.7 billion).

Analysts expect signals about a possible fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter to support domestic demand. However, authorities remain cautious and exercise stricter control over subsidy programs, such as the "cash for scrap" plan, whose fund replenishment is progressing slowly.