Economic activity grew 3.2% year-on-year in October and accumulated an increase of 5% for the year
Javier Milei and Luis Caputo
porEditorial Team
Argentina
INDEC published the report on the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator for the month of October
Economic activity recorded in October a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, according to the official data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).
The Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) showed a 0.4% drop compared to September due to strong volatility caused by the elections, although it maintained a very positive performance in the year-on-year comparison and in the cumulative figure for the year.
According to the report, the level of activity was 3.2% above that recorded in October of the previous year. In addition, in the first ten months of the year the indicator accumulated an increase of 5% compared to the same period in 2023, which reflects a positive balance despite the specific setback observed in the latest monthly data.
Datos del INDEC.
When analyzing sectoral performance, Indec's report indicated that twelve of the sectors that make up the EMAE showed increases in the year-on-year comparison. Among them, Fishing stood out especially, with year-on-year growth of 91.4%, and Financial intermediation, which recorded an increase of 22.8% in relation to October of the previous year. In the case of financial activity, the increase was explained mainly by greater activity of brokerage firms and stock exchange companies.
Financial intermediation was also the sector with the greatest positive impact on the year-on-year variation of the EMAE. With a significant contribution to the general index, it was followed by Real estate, business, and rental activities, which grew 3.9% year-on-year. Together, both categories contributed 1.32 percentage points to the annual growth of the indicator prepared by the statistical agency.
Datos del INDEC.
Volatility due to the elections
The behavior of economic activity during October occurred in a particular context. The month was marked by strong exchange rate volatility associated with the electoral process and the fear caused in the markets by Kirchnerism, factors that negatively influenced the overall performance of the economy.
Beyond the negative monthly figure, short- and medium-term projections continue to show growth expectations. The Market Expectations Survey (REM), which the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) prepares on a monthly basis, estimated for the fourth quarter of 2025 a 0.8% growth in economic activity. For the first quarter of 2026, meanwhile, analysts projected an additional increase of 0.9%.
Regarding annual performance, REM indicated that the estimated average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year is 4.4% above the level recorded in 2023. This figure demonstrates the recovery of activity in the cumulative figure for the year, despite monthly fluctuations and the impact of financial and political factors on the evolution of the economy.
