An IMF mission arrives to review the targets of the agreement with Argentina

This Tuesday, a delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will arrive in Buenos Aires to begin the technical review of the agreement signed with the Argentine Government in April. This is the first formal evaluation of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, which provides for total financing of USD 20 billion, of which USD 12 billion have already been disbursed as a boost to reserves.

The delegation will be led by Bikas Joshi, a Nepalese economist with extensive experience within the multilateral organization, who is already part of the team monitoring the Argentine situation along with Luis Cubeddu and Ashvin Ahuja. The mission will assess compliance with the fiscal and reserve targets committed to by the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank.

Difficulties in the reserve target

One of the main focuses of the review will be performance in terms of international reserves. According to private estimates, the Government would still be below the expected threshold: about USD 4 billion would be needed to reach the accumulation target agreed with the IMF.

Although the recent inflow of funds through repo operations brought gross reserves to about USD 40.5 billion, only USD 500 million of that total are considered net international reserves (NIR) under the Fund's methodology.

Fiscal surplus and positive signals on the economic front

Where the Government appears to have shown better results is on the fiscal front. According to official data, the primary surplus accumulated in the first five months of 2025 reached 0.8% of GDP, exceeding the targets agreed with the organization. Meanwhile, the overall financial result stood at 0.3% of GDP.

Consultancies such as LCG acknowledge that, although no deep structural reforms have yet been implemented, fiscal compliance was solid. Even in a scenario without essential measures, the economic team would have overachieved the committed objectives.

Meanwhile, Grupo SBS valued the "commitment to the order of public accounts" and highlighted that fiscal policy is functioning as the main macroeconomic anchor. Along the same lines, Adcap Grupo Financiero recalled that the nominal surplus target must be adjusted for the deviation of GDP from the original projections, which further improves the official indicators.

Projections for the rest of the year

The net reserves target for December is to reach USD 1.9 billion. To achieve this, the Government will depend on new successful placements of debt in dollars and possible disbursements from multilateral organizations.

According to LCG projections, the Central Bank will need to add another USD 8.3 billion in the remainder of the year if it intends to reach the expected threshold. This challenge arises in a context of a flexible exchange rate and without direct intervention by the BCRA in the market.

Meanwhile, the IMF technical mission will be key to validating the direction of the program and unlocking new disbursements that strengthen the external front and sustain macroeconomic stability.