Survey: Milei leads in Buenos Aires and makes Kirchnerism nervous

A survey by the consulting firm Trends shows an advantage for the ruling party in Buenos Aires Province

The recent court ruling for corruption that disqualifies Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from holding public office has had a strong impact on the national political landscape, especially in Buenos Aires Province, where the former president was planning to be a candidate.

The decision has left Kirchnerism without a strong figure for the Third Electoral Section, a traditional stronghold of Peronism, and has forced La Libertad Avanza (LLA) to reformulate its strategy to take advantage of the new scenario.

Survey in Buenos Aires Province: the numbers that put Peronism in check

A survey by the consulting firm Trends, conducted between June 25 and July 4, 2025, with 1,367 valid cases, shows a highly polarized scenario in the country's most populous province.

LLA + PRO concentrate 42.2% of voting intention
Fuerza Patria (Kirchnerism and allies) adds up to 40.6%
The study's margin of error is ± 2.7%

This result is even more relevant because it concerns a territory historically adverse to non-Peronism, which reinforces the position of the libertarian government as a real contender.

Encuesta: Milei lidera en Buenos Aires y pone nervioso al kirchnerismo

Survey in Buenos Aires Province: the numbers that put Peronism in check

A survey by the consulting firm Trends, conducted between June 25 and July 4, 2025, with 1,367 valid cases, shows a highly polarized scenario in the country's most populous province.

LLA + PRO concentrate 42.2% of voting intention
Fuerza Patria (Kirchnerism and allies) adds up to 40.6%
The study's margin of error is ± 2.7%

This result is even more relevant because it concerns a territory historically adverse to non-Peronism, which reinforces the position of the libertarian government as a real contender.

Loyal to their vote: how the 2023 electorate behaves

The study reveals a high level of party loyalty:

81.6% of Milei voters in 2023 maintain their support for LLA
71.9% of Massa's voters remain aligned with Kirchnerism
Among Bullrich's voters, 54.1% go with Milei, and 25.1% remain with PRO, reflecting strong fragmentation in that space

Hot sections: the Third no longer decides alone

The analysis by electoral section shows LLA with a consistent performance, with a floor of 36% in the Third and peaks of 40% in the First.

In contrast, Kirchnerism retains strength in Greater Buenos Aires (35.9% in the Third and 35.7% in the First), but falls to 31% in the interior, where PRO achieves its best result with a modest 8.4%.

Political outlook: concentration and undecided vote

Other forces show marginal performance:

Non-K Peronism ranges between 6% and 7%
The left barely exceeds 4%
UCR and Civic Coalition, below 1% in almost all sections

The undecided vote, which is around 8% at the provincial level and rises to 9.4% in the Third Section, will be decisive in such a close election.