The recent court ruling for corruption that disqualifies Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from holding public office has had a strong impact on the national political landscape, especially in Buenos Aires Province, where the former president was planning to be a candidate.
The decision has left Kirchnerism without a strong figure for the Third Electoral Section, a traditional stronghold of Peronism, and has forced La Libertad Avanza (LLA) to reformulate its strategy to take advantage of the new scenario.
Survey in Buenos Aires Province: the numbers that put Peronism in check
A survey by the consulting firm Trends, conducted between June 25 and July 4, 2025, with 1,367 valid cases, shows a highly polarized scenario in the country's most populous province.
LLA + PRO concentrate 42.2% of voting intention
Fuerza Patria (Kirchnerism and allies) adds up to 40.6%
The study's margin of error is ± 2.7%
This result is even more relevant because it concerns a territory historically adverse to non-Peronism, which reinforces the position of the libertarian government as a real contender.
Encuesta: Milei lidera en Buenos Aires y pone nervioso al kirchnerismo
Loyal to their vote: how the 2023 electorate behaves
The study reveals a high level of party loyalty:
81.6% of Milei voters in 2023 maintain their support for LLA
71.9% of Massa's voters remain aligned with Kirchnerism
Among Bullrich's voters, 54.1% go with Milei, and 25.1% remain with PRO, reflecting strong fragmentation in that space
Hot sections: the Third no longer decides alone
The analysis by electoral section shows LLA with a consistent performance, with a floor of 36% in the Third and peaks of 40% in the First.
Encuesta: Milei lidera en Buenos Aires y pone nervioso al kirchnerismo
In contrast, Kirchnerism retains strength in Greater Buenos Aires (35.9% in the Third and 35.7% in the First), but falls to 31% in the interior, where PRO achieves its best result with a modest 8.4%.
Political outlook: concentration and undecided vote
Other forces show marginal performance:
Non-K Peronism ranges between 6% and 7%
The left barely exceeds 4%
UCR and Civic Coalition, below 1% in almost all sections
The undecided vote, which is around 8% at the provincial level and rises to 9.4% in the Third Section, will be decisive in such a close election.
