Mining exports could increase eightfold in ten years

Argentina could be at the beginning of a new cycle of mining expansion capable of transforming its export matrix and strengthening its financial profile. This is stated in a report by the investment bank Morgan Stanley, which projects strong growth in the sector over the next decade, driven by the Government's economic reforms

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The document, entitled “Malbec & Minerals: Is Argentina the Next Mining Frontier?” , suggests that the country could multiply its mining exports by eight in ten years. According to the bank's estimates, foreign sales would rise from approximately $5 billion in 2025 to about $40 billion in 2035

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For US bank analysts, the change of direction in economic policy since the coming to power of President Javier Milei was decisive in changing the perception of risk in the country. The report highlights a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomy, including the correction of the exchange rate, the elimination of the primary fiscal deficit, the reduction of monetary assistance from the Central Bank and the process of recomposition of reserves

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In this context, the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI) appears to be a key tool for attracting international capital. This scheme offers tax stability for 30 years, tax benefits and more predictable exchange rules for investment projects exceeding $200 million, conditions that are especially relevant for large scale mining ventures

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Morgan Stanley identifies more than 50 mining projects that have already passed the exploration phase and that could mobilize investments of more than $50 billion over the next decade. Most of these developments are concentrated on copper and lithium, although there are also initiatives related to gold and silver

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In the short term, lithium appears to be one of the protagonists of growth. Argentina is part of the so-called “Lithium Triangle” and currently represents around 8% of the world's mining supply of this strategic mineral for the energy transition. The report predicts that production could more than double by 2030, with expansion rates close to 30% per year between 2026 and 2028

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However, the real engine of the export leap would be copper. Eight large scale projects could mobilize around $44 billion in investment and generate exports of about $26 billion annually by 2035. Among the most notable developments is the Vicuña project, a joint initiative between Lundin Mining and BHP that could become one of the largest copper mines in

the world.

The impact of this process would not be limited to foreign trade. During the construction phase of the projects, the report anticipates the creation of tens of thousands of direct and indirect jobs in construction, logistics, services and associated activities

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From a macroeconomic perspective, the bank argues that a sustained increase in mining exports—combined with the growth of the energy surplus—could structurally strengthen Argentina's balance of payments and reduce the traditional exchange rate tensions that have affected the

country for decades.

If the rules of the game are maintained and the planned investments are realized, Argentina could go from being a marginal player in strategic minerals to occupying an important place in global supply chains, with mining as a new key source of foreign exchange and economic growth.