Inflation in March stood at 3.4%, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), representing an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to 2.9% recorded in February, in a context marked by the international impact of the increase in oil and seasonal factors.
According to the report, the increase was mainly driven by the increase in fuel prices, in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, and by pressures typical of the period, such as the return to school.
INDEC data. Despite the monthly acceleration, the Government projected that starting in April a process of inflationary slowdown will begin accompanied by growth in economic activity.
Along these lines, the Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputo, had already anticipated the behavior of the index
.
March inflation
“Surely it will be above 3% because there was a shock with oil,” the official explained during a presentation at the Rosario Stock Exchange. In this context, he added: “Starting in April, a process of disinflation and growth is coming, the best months are coming.”
After the release of the data, Caputo expanded the analysis through his social networks and detailed the composition of the index: “The National CPI registered a monthly variation of 3.4% in March, with an increase of 3.2%, 5.1% and 1.0% in the core, regulated and seasonal categories, respectively.”
The minister also highlighted signs of moderation in key indicators linked to basic consumption. “Strong slowdown in the Basic Food Basket, which went from an increase of 3.2% per month in February to 2.2% in March. On the other hand, the monthly variation of the Total Basic Basket fell from 2.7% in February to 2.6% in March
,” he said.
Regarding the factors that influenced the data, he highlighted the international context: “The month recorded a significant impact of the war in the Middle East, in line with the effects recorded in other countries.” Added to this was the internal process of correcting relative prices, visible in regulated services and in the meat sector.
Javier Milei and Luis Caputo.
Caputo also stressed that core inflation showed stability. “Core inflation excluding meat remained at 2.5%, the same variation as in February. This indicates that, beyond occasional shocks, the underlying component of inflation remained stable,” he
said.
Among the most significant increases associated with the international context, he mentioned increases of 9% in fuel, 24% in cabotage plane tickets and 22% in interurban transport. He also highlighted that the Education sector registered a monthly increase of 12.1%, “the lowest in the last 8 years for the month of March
.”
Finally, the minister reiterated his explanation of the inflationary process: “Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and can be accelerated by an increase in the money supply, a fall in demand, or a combination of both. As the lagging impact of the pre-election crash in demand for money last year weakens, the fiscal and monetary order will allow inflation to continue to converge at international levels
.”
In this way, the Government reaffirmed that, in addition to the one-off effects recorded in March, the macroeconomic stabilization process is ongoing and provides the basis for a sustained slowdown in the coming months.
