The consulting firm Giacobbe & Asociados, renowned for having accurately predicted the results of the legislative elections in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA), now projects a resounding victory for La Libertad Avanza (LLA) in the province of Buenos Aires for the 2025 elections.
According to its latest public opinion report published in April 2025, President Javier Milei's party leads the voting intention in the country's main electoral district with 39.8%, followed by Kirchnerism/Peronism (Union for the Homeland) with 35.2%. In third place, far behind, is the "non-K Peronism" with 5.9%, followed by PRO with 5.7%.
The survey was conducted between April 16 and 21 of this year, with a sample of 1,500 cases and a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. The survey was carried out through mobile surveys to devices, a methodology that has been showing greater effectiveness in capturing real-time electoral trends.
Encuestas de la consultora Giacobbe & Asociados.
Giacobbe's performance in CABA was particularly notable after they accurately anticipated the final result. In their survey, prior to the Buenos Aires elections, Manuel Adorni, the presidential spokesperson and LLA candidate, was winning with 31.8% of the votes, followed by Leandro Santoro with 30.7%. Meanwhile, PRO, with Silvia Lospennato as a candidate, was relegated to third place with just 15.7%.
After the publication of the official results, La Libertad Avanza ended up sweeping CABA with 30.13% of the votes, far ahead of the other political parties. In second place was Peronism with 27.35%, and further behind was PRO, with just over 15.9%. These data demonstrate the closeness of the Giacobbe & Asociados survey.
Axel Kicillof, gobernador bonaerense.
In a context of increasing polarization between the libertarian government and Kirchnerism, Giacobbe's data anticipate a highly competitive provincial election but with a clear favoritism toward Javier Milei and his political space. If these results are replicated at the polls, LLA would be in a position to further consolidate its legislative power, especially in the strategic Buenos Aires stronghold, and causing a severe defeat for Peronism.
With rising credibility after recent successes, Giacobbe positions itself as one of the most influential pollsters in the current Argentine political scene, and its numbers are already beginning to set the pace of the pre-election debate ahead of October.
