As the calendar marked the official start of winter, for Javier Milei's government, the storm fronts began to clear, revealing a clear horizon for the next 15 months. Until just a couple of weeks ago, the government had three open fronts that needed to be navigated to start moving towards 2027, and in just a few days, all of them began to close simultaneously. The deepest political crisis it faced since taking office —the departure of Manuel Adorni— has been resolved. The external energy shock, a result of the war in the Middle East, is decompressing. And the ghost that most worried any investor with a memory, that of a 2027 with a challenging debt maturity profile, courtesy of Martín Guzmán, has cleared up with Caputo's financial plan. Three fronts, three closures, in just three weeks.
Let's start with the political front. Manuel Adorni, Chief of Staff since late 2025 and a very close official to President Milei, resigned on June 27 after nearly four months of constant media attacks and difficulties in credibly explaining his expenses and asset changes. While the allegations are making their way through the justice system, the deterioration of his image in the public eye was strongly impacting the government overall, jeopardizing the reform agenda it committed to pursue. After weeks filled with rumors, the change came, and Diego Santilli, who has significant political experience and the ability to forge agreements, took over as the new Chief of Staff. Days earlier, Adrián Ravier, an economist from the Austrian school and disciple of Jesús Huerta de Soto, took on the presidential spokesperson role with a style diametrically opposed to Adorni's: calmer, less confrontational, more grounded in fundamentals. Milei himself summed it up with a phrase that fits the moment: "The classroom has expanded."
The second front is external. The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which had caused Brent to exceed US$120 in March, began to resolve with the Islamabad Memorandum on June 17. The results are already visible in the numbers: crude closed at US$71.57 on July 1 and fell below US$71 the next day, its lowest level since late February. For an Argentina that is now a net energy exporter, the price of oil plays in two opposing directions: an expensive barrel improves the terms of trade and helps the BCRA accumulate reserves, but it raises fuel prices at the pump and, through that route, filters into all prices in the economy. One doesn't have to look far back to see it: inflation peaked at 3.4% in March, a direct consequence of the spike in barrel prices. The current decompression, then, alleviates the inflationary front even as it moderates that export tailwind —and for a government that has anchored itself in lowering inflation, it's a trade-off that works in its favor.
The third, and perhaps the most decisive for thinking about 2027, is the financial front. The Country Risk closed at 415 basis points on July 2, a low since April 2018, with a 27.3% drop in the semester. The BCRA's gross reserves reached a record US$48.004 billion, supported by 120 consecutive days of net purchases. And next Monday, July 6, Caputo will formally present a financial program that, according to his team, leaves "completely closed" the financing not only for 2026 but also for 2027 —the year in which, until recently, many anticipated a new scenario of exchange rate tension if the treasury could not find financing sources.
In addition, there is a disinflation that no one can dispute: 2.1% in May, the lowest figure in eight months, with June projected between 1.8% and 1.9% by private analysts.
