France: 34% probability of winning the World Cup according to Opta's simulations.
France: 57.7% chance of overcoming Spain and reaching the final.
Spain: 23.4% probability of winning the title according to Opta.
Argentina faces England in the 2026 World Cup and the models from Goldman Sachs and Opta analyze their chances
France: 34% probability of winning the World Cup according to Opta's simulations.
France: 57.7% chance of overcoming Spain and reaching the final.
Spain: 23.4% probability of winning the title according to Opta.
The elimination of France by Spain changed the projections of Wall Street for the 2026 World Cup. Now, Argentina appears as a contender in the other semifinal against England.
The models from Goldman Sachs, BofA Global Research, and Opta had placed France among the top candidates for the title. After their defeat, the estimates focus on the match between Argentina and England.
Spain defeated France 2-0 in Arlington and advanced to the final of the 2026 World Cup. The goals were scored by Mikel Oyarzabal, from a penalty, and Pedro Porro.
The French defeat nullified the forecasts that had placed them as one of the top favorites to lift the trophy.
Since early May, a survey among analysts from BofA Global Research had placed France as the main candidate for the title.
The survey assigned the French team a 31.5% probability of winning the tournament, above Spain, which had a 28.7%. Artificial intelligence also placed both teams with similar chances.
Goldman Sachs had started the World Cup with Spain as the favorite in its model. However, its simulations changed as the tournament progressed and placed France as the main candidate by the end of June.
After the quarter-finals, the bank conducted 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations and estimated that France had a 31% chance of being the champion.
Additionally, it calculated that the team led by Didier Deschamps had a 51% chance of overcoming Spain and reaching their third consecutive final.
Opta's supercomputer had also positioned France as the favorite after running 25,000 simulations of the tournament's conclusion.
With France eliminated, analyses on Wall Street are now focused on the semifinal between Argentina and England.
Before the semifinals began, Goldman Sachs considered the most likely scenario to be a final between Argentina and France, with a probability of 27%.
The second option was a showdown between Argentina and Spain, with a 26%. After the French elimination, that matchup remains the only one of those scenarios that is still valid.
According to Goldman Sachs, Argentina has a 53% chance of defeating England, while the English have a 47%.
Opta's model projects a very balanced semifinal between Argentina and England.
After completing 25,000 simulations, the supercomputer estimated that England would reach the final in 50.9% of the cases, compared to 49.1% for Argentina.
Additionally, Opta placed the Argentine National Team as the least favorite among the four semifinalists to win the World Cup, with a probability of 20.6%.