Spain: PP and Vox would reach an absolute majority in Congress, according to polls

Less than three weeks before the early general elections on November 29 in Spain, the Popular Party (PP) of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, maintain a wide parliamentary majority in the main polls, with projections exceeding the 176 seats needed to achieve an absolute majority in Congress and that would allow for a right-wing alternative to the socialist government of Pedro Sánchez.

According to the latest poll by 40dB., conducted for El País and Cadena SER and published this Monday, the PP would obtain 31.9% of the votes and 129 deputies, while Vox would reach 18% and 61 seats. The sum of both parties would amount to 190 representatives, fourteen above the absolute majority. The PSOE, for its part, would gather 29.9% of the votes and 119 deputies, just two percentage points behind the main opposition force.

The result coincides with the trend recorded during October. The average of 16 polling firms published on October 21 projected around 204 deputies for PP and Vox, while the average from DatosRTVE on October 5 estimated 202 representatives. In its update on November 9, the RTVE average places the sum at 199 seats, above the threshold needed to control the Lower House.

Meanwhile, the political forces situated to the left of the PSOE face a significant loss of representation. The new coalition Frente Amplio would obtain barely 5% of the votes and ten deputies, while Podemos, with 1.2%, could be left out of Congress. In the 2023 elections, Sumar, which then included Podemos, had achieved 31 representatives, so the current projections reflect a considerable reduction of the space.

For his part, Pedro Sánchez managed to improve his voting intention by 1.8 points compared to October, even after the train accident in Urda, which left 69 dead. However, the recovery of the PSOE is not enough, according to current estimates, to reverse the projected parliamentary majority for PP and Vox.

If a similar distribution of seats is maintained after the elections, Feijóo would need to negotiate with Abascal to gather the support of an absolute majority, in a scenario where Vox would play a relevant role in the formation of a potential new Spanish Government.