A Swiss bank claims that the IMF will lend Argentina USD 20 billion

In a recent report addressed to its clients, the Swiss bank UBS anticipated that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could grant Argentina a loan of approximately 20 billion dollars as part of a new financing scheme.

Within this package, 8 billion dollars would correspond to fresh funds, although their destination is not specified, while the remaining amount would be used to cover principal maturities and interest that the country must face during the current administration of Javier Milei. The agency Bloomberg was responsible for disclosing this information.

UBS analysts, Alejo Czerwonko and Pedro Quintanilla-Dieck, noted in the document that at least 30% of the new financing would be available in 2025, taking previous agreements with the IMF as a reference.

This forecast exceeds the initial estimates of the local market, where it was projected that the agreement with the international organization would be around 11 billion dollars.

The possibility of accessing a higher amount could grant Argentina greater financial stability and contribute to the strengthening of its international reserves, essential factors for the country's economic recovery. The new program would be designed to cover both the principal maturities and the interest that Argentina will have to face until 2028.

According to the UBS report, it is estimated that the country will have to pay 12 billion dollars in principal and 9 billion dollars in interest during this period. The financing scheme proposed by the IMF would allow covering these obligations and, in addition, provide additional resources to strengthen the Central Bank's reserves.

Meanwhile, with this new loan, Milei's government plans to cancel part of the debt that the National Treasury maintains with the Central Bank, represented in the so-called Non-Transferable Bills. This way, although the creditor would change, the Treasury's "gross debt" would not increase, according to official sources.

Although the conditions of the agreement have not yet been revealed in detail, it is speculated that the IMF could demand certain commitments from Argentina. Among them, restrictions on the use of funds and the continuity of the exchange policy established by the economic team are mentioned.

In conclusion, UBS's forecast of a possible loan reflects the progress in negotiations and the international organization's willingness to support the country's economic stabilization process.

Conversations between Argentina and the IMF have shown significant progress in recent weeks. An example of this is that last Friday, Gita Gopinath, IMF Deputy Managing Director, met with the Minister of Economy, Luis "Toto" Caputo, and the President of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili. After the meeting, Gopinath emphasized that "great progress" is being made in the negotiations.

Meanwhile, President Milei, during the opening of the ordinary sessions, indicated that negotiations with the IMF are at an advanced stage and that he will request Congress's support to ratify the agreement reached.