The unusual case of San Marino on the road to the 2026 World Cup: it could qualify for the play-offs without winning a single match

San Marino, traditionally synonymous with heavy defeats and negative statistics, could be the protagonist of one of the most curious chapters on the road to the 2026 World Cup. Despite not having recorded any victories, "La Serenissima" still holds a remote chance of sneaking into the European play-off that will determine the last spots for the World Cup to be hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

The European qualification system, expanded after the increase in slots, allocates 12 direct spots to the leaders of each group, while the next 12 advance to a play-off. To complete the 16 spots in that stage, the four best group winners of the 2023-24 UEFA Nations League who have not finished among the top two in their qualifying groups are added.

There, San Marino comes into play. Thanks to its surprising performance in the Nations League, where it finished first in Group 1 of League D, the team achieved the 14th best overall performance in the tournament, which currently places it within the range that could allow it to access the play-off if a series of favorable results occur.

Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France have already secured at least one spot in the play-offs by having played in the Final Four. If these European giants manage to qualify directly for the World Cup, their play-off spots are "inherited" by the next in the order of merit. In that scenario, San Marino remains expectant in 14th position.

Ahead are teams such as England, Norway, Wales, Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland, and Moldova. If at least six of them finish as leaders or runners-up in their groups, San Marino will be two matches away (a single-leg semifinal and final) from achieving the greatest milestone in its sporting history.

Currently, the San Marino team has lost all its matches in the Qualifiers and has scored only one goal (precisely against Romania) and conceded 32, but its next match could prove crucial. It will face Romania, which is third in its group and is fighting neck and neck with Bosnia and Austria for a direct ticket.

Paradoxically, a heavy defeat suffered by San Marino could benefit it, since if Romania qualifies, it will free up one of the spots coming from the Nations League, which would favor La Serenissima. Thus, the most modest team in Europe (with no official victories in its history) could end up benefiting from a defeat and keep alive the impossible dream of reaching the 2026 World Cup.