Masismo dismissed the adverse economic projections of international organizations

The MAS government disqualified the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), which predict a weak economic performance for the country in 2025. According to the Ministry of Economy, the models used by both organizations are systematically flawed and do not reflect Bolivia's economic reality. The ministry stated that these reports are based on assumptions unrelated to the national context, accusing the organizations of engaging in biased and pessimistic readings.

The Executive recalled that in 2023 both the IMF and the WB projected growth of less than 2%. However, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) closed that year with an expansion of 3.1%. For the government, this difference demonstrates the lack of accuracy in the calculations of international institutions.

From the official side, it is also argued that there is a permanent bias against the current economic policy. This stance reinforces the official discourse about a strong and recovering economy.

The most recent report from the World Bank anticipates a growth of just 1.2% for 2025. In contrast, the government projects a rate of 3.51% in the General State Budget. While the WB advises structural reforms, the regime defends its declining model and also rejects diagnoses suggesting structural weakening.

Meanwhile, the IMF forecasts an inflation of 15.1% for this year and estimates that in 2026 growth will drop even further, to 0.9%. These figures alarmed local experts who warn of a stagflation scenario, with some economists claiming that inflation could even exceed 20%. The situation is exacerbated by the shortage of foreign currency, fuel shortages, and export restrictions.

Is the situation more complicated than what these organizations indicate?

Economist Alberto Bonadona described the IMF's forecasts as optimistic because it is likely that Bolivia will not even reach the projected 1.1% growth. Bonadona warns of a growing risk of economic contraction and also predicts inflation that could climb to 25% if urgent measures are not taken. His analysis aligns with a critical view of the current economic direction.

Gonzalo Chávez, another renowned economist, noted that the IMF's figures often come closer to those of the government. However, he considers that the recent projections are concerning and reflect a stagnation of the productive apparatus. He also pointed out that the new government will inherit a deeply deteriorated economy and warns that the room for maneuver will be limited.

The Executive, however, insists that the real data is positive and highlights a growth of 2.1% by the third quarter of 2024, despite social blockades. It highlights a 20% increase in tax collection in the first quarter of 2025 and adds a 4% expansion in loans and a 7% increase in bank deposits. For the government, these indicators demonstrate confidence and stability, reiterating that the Bolivian economy is resilient in the face of adversity.

Regarding inflation, the Ministry of Economy attributes its increase to external factors along with internal blockades, climatic effects, and price speculation. It also lists measures adopted such as fair price fairs and the fight against smuggling. It claims that prices in Bolivia are lower than in neighboring countries and even speaks of reverse smuggling as proof of its success.

How are the reserves?

The government indicates that international reserves stabilized in 2024, totaling 2.3 billion dollars, and assures that there are no defaults on external debt. Debt represents 24.4% of GDP, a figure considered manageable. For the authorities, these numbers contradict the catastrophic view of the organizations and argue that there are no solid grounds to talk about a crisis.

Likewise, the official side denounces that more than 1.5 billion dollars in loans have not been approved, complicating the importation of fuels and the execution of public works. Even so, it assures that the country continues to advance responsibly and calls on the Legislature to unblock the loans to ensure development. It reiterates that economic stability can't depend on political interests.

The Ministry also pointed out that the IMF's downward revisions are not exclusive to Bolivia and explained that many countries are affected by the global situation. Among the factors mentioned are the trade war and geopolitical fragmentation. It also warns about the persistence of high interest rates, which negatively influence projections for the entire region.

International organizations insist on the need for structural reforms, recommending diversifying the economy and improving productivity. It is also suggested to strengthen the response to external shocks. However, the MAS government believes it is already on that path and assures that industrialization with import substitution is the key to success.

Can the regime sustain the situation?

Despite the Executive's arguments, external figures remain bleak. Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2.1% in 2025. Bolivia, with a projected 1.1% or 1.2%, would lag behind.

This difference raises doubts about the effectiveness of the current model. While the official side celebrates partial achievements, structural challenges persist. The gap between discourse and reality seems to be widening.

For many analysts, the government's stance is nothing more than a political defense. By downplaying external warnings, it seeks to sustain a narrative of success. However, the effects of the dollar shortage and inflation are palpable.

The population faces high prices, shortages, and reduced purchasing power. The country is going through a crisis that can no longer be hidden with triumphalist speeches.

The government's refusal to acknowledge the signs of exhaustion of its economic model reflects a dangerous stubbornness. Instead of opening up to proposals that could mitigate the crisis, the regime clings to a triumphalist narrative that convinces fewer and fewer. This obstinacy not only postpones the urgent solutions the country needs but also deepens the distrust of citizens and international actors.