Inflation in Mexico rebounded to 3.74% in February.

In the first half of February 2025, inflation in Mexico recorded an annual increase of 3.74%, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

After six consecutive fortnights of decline, inflation rebounded. The rate remains above the Bank of Mexico's (3%) target.

Breakdown of Inflation

Core inflation, which excludes highly volatile products, also showed a slight increase, standing at 3.63% annually. This component reflects the more persistent inflationary pressures in the economy.

The increase in inflation makes regular consumer goods and services more expensive. This impacts purchasing power and family budgets.

External and Internal Factors

The Mexican economy faces additional challenges due to international trade policies.

The United States imposed a 25% tariff on Mexican steel and aluminum exports. This measure will affect key sectors such as automotive and manufacturing.

This measure, which will take effect on March 12, aims to curb the alleged triangulation of exports from China through Mexico and Canada to the United States.

The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) estimates that this tariff could represent an economic blow exceeding 29 billion dollars.

Economic Outlook

In light of this scenario, the Bank of Mexico has adjusted its economic growth forecast for 2025 downward, reducing it from 1.2% to 0.6%.

This decision is due to the growing global economic uncertainty and changes in the United States administration.

Despite the recent inflationary rebound, the Bank of Mexico is expected to continue with an accommodative monetary policy to stimulate economic growth.

Currently, the benchmark interest rate stands at 9.5%, after a half-percentage-point reduction this month.

The governor of Banxico, Victoria Rodríguez, stated that the fight against inflation has entered a new phase. This could allow for interest rate cuts.

Banxico pays special attention to core inflation, which excludes highly volatile products and reflects medium- and long-term inflationary trends.