The regime of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is going through one of its most delicate weeks since his return to power, in the midst of a political deterioration that is also beginning to be felt in Congress, the Senate and the electoral markets. The fall in his public image, the advantage that Polymarket assigns to Flávio Bolsonaro and the recent legislative setbacks set an adverse scenario for the pro-communist president.
The unrest had been accumulating since March, when multiple reports agreed on a worrying picture for the Brazilian ruling party: lower presidential approval, falling consumer confidence and concern about inflation. This combination of political wear and tear and economic pessimism began to erode social perception of the
country's direction.
This discomfort also began to spread to the electoral field. In Polymarket, according to the released capture, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 43% compared to 38% for Lula da Silva in the market over the presidential elections in Brazil. Although this is not a traditional survey, the data reflects how investors and political gamblers are beginning to look more expectantly at the Brazilian right
.The second blow came from Congress. Brazilian legislators overturned Lula's veto of a law that reduces the 27-year sentence against Jair Bolsonaro, convicted by the Brazilian judiciary for the “alleged” coup attempt following the 2022 elections. The measure could leave the former president's sentence in just over two years and also benefit others convicted of acts linked to January 2023
