Lula's collapse: markets, Congress and Senate turn their backs on him in Brazil

The regime of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is going through one of its most delicate weeks since his return to power, in the midst of a political deterioration that is also beginning to be felt in Congress, the Senate and the electoral markets. The fall in his public image, the advantage that Polymarket assigns to Flávio Bolsonaro and the recent legislative setbacks set an adverse scenario for the pro-communist president.

The unrest had been accumulating since March, when multiple reports agreed on a worrying picture for the Brazilian ruling party: lower presidential approval, falling consumer confidence and concern about inflation. This combination of political wear and tear and economic pessimism began to erode social perception of the

country's direction.

This discomfort also began to spread to the electoral field. In Polymarket, according to the released capture, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 43% compared to 38% for Lula da Silva in the market over the presidential elections in Brazil. Although this is not a traditional survey, the data reflects how investors and political gamblers are beginning to look more expectantly at the Brazilian right

.

The second blow came from Congress. Brazilian legislators overturned Lula's veto of a law that reduces the 27-year sentence against Jair Bolsonaro, convicted by the Brazilian judiciary for the “alleged” coup attempt following the 2022 elections. The measure could leave the former president's sentence in just over two years and also benefit others convicted of acts linked to January 2023

.

The decision represents a direct defeat for Lula, who had vetoed the initiative and sought to sustain the punishment against his main political adversary. However, the Congress marked another limit to the Executive and stated that the ruling party is no longer guaranteed legislative discipline to impose

its agenda.

The third coup was even more historic. The Senate rejected the nomination of Jorge Messias, Attorney General of the State and a man close to Lula, to serve on the Supreme Federal Court. The vote ended 42 to 34 against, short of the 41 votes needed to approve the nomination. It was the first time in more than a century that the upper house blocked a presidential nomination for the highest court

.

The rejection of Messias exposed the president's political weakness in a Senate crossed by center-right and opposition sectors. In addition, it showed that not even a key candidacy to influence the Court managed to gather the necessary support in the middle of the electoral period

.

With the image shattered, Congress reducing punishment against Bolsonaro and the Senate blocking a strategic designation, Lula faces an increasingly uphill scenario.