Toto Caputo anticipated that the next election year “will be a walk in the park”

In a context where the Government seeks to consolidate economic stability and allay historical fears associated with the electoral years in Argentina, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, drew a markedly optimistic scenario for the next political calendar. According to the official, the country is heading towards an unprecedented period of predictability, backed by solid economic indicators and growing confidence both from the market and from political actors, including from opposition sectors. During an interview on the program La Cornisa, hosted by Luis Majul in La Nación Más, Caputo was categorical in stating: “Next year will not be a typical Argentine election year, it will be a walk in the park”, thus ruling out any scenario of tension or instability such as those

that historically marked similar processes.

The minister based his vision on political signals that he considers to be convincing. In this regard, he recalled his participation in Argentina Week, where, as he recounted, “12 opposition governors” agreed that “there is no possibility of going backwards”, and he even stressed that these leaders “spoke better about us as a government than we did ourselves”, evidencing, in his opinion, a cross-cutting support for the current economic direction. Regarding the political situation and its impact on markets, Caputo minimized any negative effects derived from the situation of the former presidential spokesman and current Chief of Staff, Manuel Adorni. “The Adorni thing doesn't affect the economy at all; what really influences is political volatility,” he said, ruling out consequences for country risk

or investments.

However, the head of the Palace of Finance identified a factor that, according to his analysis, does affect economic decisions: the fear of the possible return of Kirchnerism. In strong terms, he defined it as “hell for most people”, and explained that this perception - although he considers it unfounded - has concrete effects on the behavior of economic agents

.

In this regard, he revealed a significant fact: “Nine out of 10 people consulted respond that they do not deposit their money in banks for fear that Kirchnerism will return.” Although he argued that the probability of this scenario is “zero”, he acknowledged that the market incorporates that risk in its decisions, affecting issues such as the repatriation of capital or the use of

fiscal incentives.

In this context, Caputo defended the new tax regularization legislation, stressing that “the law is very well done, since it totally shields people and banks”. However, he admitted that a certain social mistrust persists: “There is such a shambles on the other side that there are those who believe a return of Kirchnerism is possible and, despite legal safeguards,

they remain skeptical.”

Despite this, the minister expressed confidence that the process will move forward. “I observe the medium term and the behavior of the market. The negative scenario, although unlikely, continues to weigh on individual decisions, but it has no objective support,” he explained, making a difference between perceptions

and real foundations.

Regarding his management style, Caputo vindicated his direct form of communication: “People value that I say what I think, I don't speak as a politician but as another citizen in the position in which I am, and I think that is recognized”.

Regarding the plan of “fiscal innocence”, he acknowledged that there is still some caution in the financial system, although he was optimistic: “dollars are going to come out of the mattress,” he said, projecting

a greater formalization of savings.

At the macroeconomic level, the minister flatly rejected the idea of stagflation. “There is no stagflation, the data shows the opposite. Data measures reality and reality is incontrovertible. We are practically at a record not in everything, but in a lot of things: GDP, economic activity, private consumption,” he said. In addition, he questioned the role of certain media sectors: “The media try to install what you don't notice, but you can clearly tell. They are trying to establish that there is a mega-recession at a time when consumption is at an historic peak

.”

Although he admitted that in February there could be a slight slowdown in activity and a rise in inflation “due to the war”, he highlighted specific indicators of recovery, such as the 44% growth in motorcycle sales. “Before, people burned their money because of inflation. Today there is credit. Consumption changed. The data are unquestionable,” he emphasized.

In relation to the fall in tax revenues for eight consecutive months, Caputo relativised the fact: “We take out taxes; but some in their brutality do not take into account those effects,” he added, also pointing out that there is “a little more informality”.

As he deepened the discussion between data and perceptions, he again questioned part of journalism: “A large part of journalism ignores data,” he said, and critically recalled former minister Aníbal Fernández when he pointed out: “we had a minister who had the feeling that there were fewer poor people in Germany.”

Finally, the minister denied that there is an exchange rate backlog, supporting his position on the record trade surplus in January, and defended the taking of mortgage loans by State officials. As he explained, it was a policy driven by his portfolio: “I induced them,” he revealed, and stressed that these loans represent a minimum portion: “out of more than 27,000 mortgage loans, those taken by officials do not reach 0.2 percent.” In addition, he highlighted the role of credit as an economic engine: “Mortgage credit is a phenomenal engine of reactivation

.”