President Javier Milei anticipated that inflation will break 1% by mid-2025 and in 2026 it will reach zero
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A couple of hours later after the currency control was lifted in Argentina, President Javier Milei anticipated that inflation "will cease to be a problem" by mid-2025.
According to his analysis, the general price level is directly related to the amount of money in circulation, and the effects of that monetary policy usually take between 18 and 24 months to reflect in consumer prices.
"We had a bad March, April will be better and by mid-year inflation will aim to break below 1%," the president stated during an interview with journalist Luis Majul on El Observador. He added: "Meanwhile, by mid-next year, two years of zero issuance will be completed; by mid-next year, the inflation problem in Argentina will be over."
Milei explained that the 3.7% inflation recorded in March was mainly due to seasonal factors related to the start of the school year, the increase in meat prices, and the uncertainty caused by opposition sectors and "econochantas" who questioned the direction of negotiations with the IMF.
The president pointed out that Argentina will receive disbursements totaling 44 billion dollars. He detailed that this figure is composed of 20 billion from the IMF, 12 billion from the World Bank, 10 billion from the IDB, and 2 billion corresponding to a repo with private banking entities.
Javier Milei, presidente de Argentina.
Additionally, he did not rule out the possibility that the United States Treasury might enable a direct line of financial assistance for the country, although he avoided giving specifics as he plans to meet this afternoon with the Treasury Secretary, who arrived this morning at the Aeroparque.
When asked about the differences with previous agreements between Argentina and the IMF that did not succeed, Milei highlighted that this time the country not only met but even exceeded all targets, also ensuring fiscal balance. "They have never seen this in their lives, and that is the great difference of the program. The money is not to finance imbalances; it is designed to recapitalize the Central Bank," he explained.
The president also recalled: "They started speculating that we wouldn't lift the currency control for electoral reasons, and I committed that if I had USD 15 billion in hand, I would lift the control." He added: "The program is for USD 44 billion, and as if that weren't enough, we will now receive USD 19,600 in cash... If I told Argentinians that with USD 15 billion I would lift it, how am I not going to do it if I have USD 19,600?" he emphasized.
Javier Milei, presidente de Argentina.
The value of the dollar
President Milei also projected that the dollar exchange rate will be near the lower limit set by the Ministry of Economy, which is currently at 1000 pesos.
He explained it as follows: "The bands have two characteristics, the upper one grows 1% and the lower one falls 1% per month." He added: "If we continue with this policy of not issuing money, demand recovers, and at the same time the economy grows, which is happening, that means the demand for money will soar, and the only way to supply it is by selling to the Central Bank... and what will end up happening is that the exchange rate will fall," he detailed.
In that line, he explained: "What happens if we go to the floor of the band? We can buy at the floor of the band. The fund's program imposes a target of buying 4 billion dollars because the estimate is that the exchange rate will go to the floor of the band. It's a fact they are not considering," he stated.
During the interview, which lasted more than an hour, Milei also commented that the agreement with the PRO in the province of Buenos Aires is close to being finalized and criticized Mauricio Macri's party for having split the elections in the City of Buenos Aires, which prevented a broader national agreement.
