Bolsonaro leads the Brazilian right: the possible 2026 candidacies

The right wing in Brazil is at a crucial turning point, with the electoral landscape ahead of 2026  marked by internal tensions and strategic political maneuvers. Although Jair Bolsonaro remains the most relevant figure in the sector, his current ineligibility forces consideration of alternative scenarios, while his inner circle works to secure a potential candidacy.

In this context, the priority for the right wing is the approval of a broad, general, and unrestricted amnesty that could eliminate the criminal consequences for Jair Bolsonaro. The measure already has sufficient support in Congress, but it depends exclusively on the decision of the chamber presidents, who so far have delayed its consideration.

If approved, Jair would regain the possibility of competing and his ineligibility could be suspended through a preliminary injunction, a process that would be facilitated by Kassio Nunes and Andre Mendonça, the expected presidents of the TSE in 2026, both appointed by Bolsonaro.

If Jair Bolsonaro fails to become a candidate, the names currently attracting the most attention on the right are: Tarcisio, governor of São Paulo, who enjoys enormous support from the "centrão" and is seen as the most competitive against the dictator Lula da Silva; Zema, governor of Minas Gerais, already officially announced as a candidate; Ratinho Jr., governor of Paraná; Michelle Bolsonaro, former first lady with high growth potential despite lacking political experience; and Eduardo Bolsonaro, federal deputy for São Paulo, currently facing legal complications.

Tarcisio, although historically loyal to Jair, has recently shown political distancing, in parallel with criticism from Bolsonaro's sons, Eduardo and Carlos. His candidacy would largely depend on Jair's direct support, something that creates division between the Bolsonarist wing and MAGA sectors in the United States, who do not view his candidacy favorably.

With Alexandre de Moraes as the repressive arm of the Supreme Court, the government is increasing pressure against Jair Bolsonaro as the struggle over his potential political return intensifies. In a new maneuver, the magistrate gave 48 hours to the Attorney General's Office to comment on the alleged "noncompliance with precautionary measures" and the risk of flight of the conservative leader.