The index compiled by JP Morgan fell to 402 points, its lowest level since April 2018, following the presentation of the 2026-2027 financial program and the payment of USD 4.2 billion to bondholders, on a day marked by a strong rise in Argentine stocks and bonds
In an unprecedented milestone for the current administration, the country risk of Argentina plummeted this Friday July 10 to reach 402 basis points, consolidating a new historical low under the management of Javier Milei. This indicator, developed by JP Morgan, broke all forecasts by reaching levels not seen since April 23, 2018 (a floor not observed for more than six years). The contraction of this sovereign index has already accumulated an impressive 5.4% so far in July, reflecting a deep and accelerated macroeconomic cleanup.
The drop in country risk is not an isolated event, but rather the direct consequence of an relentless financial strategy. The market reacted with euphoria following the recent official presentation of the comprehensive financial program planned for the 2026-2027 period, a medium-term plan that provides a predictability absent for decades in the country.
The president, Javier Milei
In addition, there is the significant impact of the disbursement of 4.2 billion dollars executed by the Treasury to settle commitments with private bondholders, an action that, according to experts, has effectively "cleared the ghosts of financial fragility in the short term".
Optimism strongly transferred to the boards of Wall Street, where Argentine stocks experienced a true festival. Local assets in the form of ADRs showed spectacular returns led by the banking sector:
BBVA (BBAR) led the gains with a jump of 9.3%.
Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) recorded an increase of 9% (in some records up to 8.5%).
Banco Supervielle (SUPV) climbed 6.4%.
In contrast, only the technology company Globant (GLOB) closed in red with a drop of 4.5%.
In the local market, despite restrictions due to the "bridge" holiday, the S&P Merval index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange did not stop its triumphant march, advancing 2.30% (or 2.4% according to closures) to climb to 3,277,240.51 units (approaching 3,280,224 points). The sovereign bonds in dollars accompanied the trend with an average increase of 0.5% in New York.
From the analytical field, José María Segura, Chief Economist at PwC Argentina, highlighted that this improvement reflects that the market recognizes "a macroeconomy with more orderly fundamentals, focusing on fiscal surplus, reserve accumulation, lower inflation, and a strengthened external account".
For Segura, the drop of the indicator below the 450-point barrier is vital because it reinforces the idea of a "perceived regime change", where "the market seems to have begun to discount that Argentina has left behind, at least for now, the most acute phase of financial fragility".
The president, Javier Milei
The day unfolded under a special technical dynamic due to the bridge holiday, operating exclusively on the T+1 (24 hours) timeframe. This means that the buy and sell orders for financial assets placed this Friday will be effectively settled next Monday, July 13, a date on which a "strong injection of liquidity" is expected due to the reinvestment of the coupons from the Bonares and Globales.
Finally, in the foreign exchange market, due to the inactivity of official banks, the official dollar remained unchanged at $1,510. In the informal circuit, the blue dollar maintained a narrow and controlled gap, operating in a stabilized range of $1,500 for buying and $1,520 for selling, demonstrating that the era of stability and freedom has arrived to stay.
