Elections: A poll projects a major victory for La Libertad Avanza in October

The Government of Javier Milei celebrates the victory on Sunday in the City of Buenos Aires, not only as a short-term electoral achievement but also as an indication of a possible consolidation of La Libertad Avanza at the national level.

In this context, according to a recent survey by Pulso Research, the administration led by President Milei not only regained lost ground in the April polls but also significantly expanded its lead over the main opposition space, Kirchnerism, ahead of the national legislative elections in October.

The study reveals that, after a complex April for the administration in terms of image and expectations, May brought a recovery that, combined with a decline in voting intention toward Kirchnerist Peronism, translates into a difference of almost 15 points projected for the legislative elections on October 26, 2025.

In the most representative scenario, which considers the projection of undecided voters, La Libertad Avanza appears with a 37.9% voting intention, followed by Kirchnerist Peronism with 23%. More lagging are non-Kirchnerist Peronism (9.4%), PRO (8.8%), the left (4.8%), and UCR (2.7%). 7.5% would choose other spaces, while 5.9% still don't know or don't answer.

Without the projection of undecided voters, the figures also favor the administration: LLA leads with 30.5%, Kirchnerism reaches 18.5%, and the other forces share the rest of the voting intention. In this scenario, the undecided represent a significant 24.2%, a variable that can redefine the results but for now also seems to benefit the administration in the final projection.

A fact that reinforces the position of Milei's Government is the sustained transfer of responsibility for the current crisis to the previous administration by society. The majority of those surveyed continue to blame the administration of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner as the main cause of the economic and social problems the country is facing.

The rise of LLA, in a context of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms, highlights a consolidation of its support base and, at the same time, reflects the opposition's difficulties in regrouping and offering a solid alternative. Peronism, divided between Kirchnerism and non-aligned sectors, remains fragmented and without clear leadership, while UCR and PRO continue to lose prominence.

A few months before the legislative elections, the scenario is still dynamic. However, the current numbers anticipate that La Libertad Avanza could face 2026 with favorable winds and with the possibility of significantly expanding its representation in Congress, which would strengthen its political project and its ability to advance key reforms.